The level marks Bitcoin’s current realized price, which measures the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all market participants. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin has historically bottomed at or slightly below that level during major bear cycles.
Moreno said the realized price has acted as a key valuation level in past downturns. He noted that Bitcoin briefly fell below it during the FTX-driven selloff in November 2022 before recovering. “Historically, it’s a level that would confirm a bottom,” Moreno told The Block. He added that Bitcoin does not need to reach the level, though it remains possible since demand remains weak.
Bitcoin dropped to about $59,000 last week, setting a fresh bear market low. That move left the asset only 9% above its realized price of $53,600.
The cryptocurrency has since recovered to about $62,150, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page. Even so, CryptoQuant said price recovery alone does not confirm a lasting market bottom.
CryptoQuant described Bitcoin demand conditions as deeply unfavorable. Moreno said a confirmed bear market bottom or bullish reversal may still need more time to develop. The firm estimates that total Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week. That marked the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.
The metric combines speculative perpetual futures activity and apparent spot demand. Both areas weakened sharply after Bitcoin moved below $60,000.
As a result, long liquidations increased, and spot selling accelerated. CryptoQuant said the break below $60,000 damaged both short-term positioning and broader market demand.
Longer-term demand also weakened. CryptoQuant’s one-year apparent demand growth has turned negative and continues falling below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024. Moreno wrote that this trend shows fewer Bitcoin buyers today than one year ago. He said that removes the demand base needed to support a durable recovery.
The report also pointed to a sharp slowdown in institutional demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. CryptoQuant said 30-day ETF demand growth has dropped to negative 74,000 BTC.
That marks the weakest reading since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Instead of absorbing selling pressure, ETFs now add to net supply expansion as investors cut exposure. At the same time, realized losses have not reached bear market capitulation levels. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders realized losses of 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
Read More: Bitcoin Price Holds Strong at $62,600 as ETF Demand Starts to Return
That figure remains below earlier stress points. Moreno compared it with 400,000 BTC in realized losses when Bitcoin first dropped below $60,000 in February 2026.
It also remains far below the 1.2 million BTC in realized losses recorded during the FTX-driven bottom in November 2022. Moreno said the current data shows many holders remain above water near $59,000.
He wrote that the market has not yet reached the forced or panic-selling phase usually seen near major bottoms. Historically, Bitcoin bottoms have followed heavy selling and seller exhaustion. For now, Moreno said $53,600 should be viewed as a possible valuation floor, not a confirmed cycle bottom. He said a bull market shift requires stable demand, stronger ETF flows, and deeper capitulation signals.
Bitcoin’s $53,600 realized price remains a key valuation floor, but CryptoQuant says weak demand, slower ETF flows, and limited realized losses leave the bottom unconfirmed. Traders should watch whether demand stabilizes and capitulation deepens before treating the current rebound as a durable recovery.