Bitcoin is showing a structural shift never recorded in prior market cycles, according to comparative weekly charts shared by analyst SuperBro on X as well as recent price action data. They compare Bitcoin’s weekly performance across 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026 using BTCUSD data from Bitstamp on TradingView.

These graphs focus on the interaction between the 100-week exponential moving average and the 100-week simple moving average. Historically, the moving averages crossed during deep bear markets and preceded sharp declines. This cycle presents a different configuration, with Bitcoin trading well above prior breakdown levels while short-term momentum strengthens.

Historical Weekly Patterns Show Repeated Bear Market Signals

In the 2014 cycle, Bitcoin traded below both the yellow 100-week SMA and the blue 100-week EMA during an extended bear phase. The chart marks this crossover point with a white circle. Soon after, the prices continued plunging lower. Bitcoin fell more than 50 percent within weeks, reaching its cycle bottom shortly afterward.

The 2018 cycle followed this same structure. Bitcoin declined for months, then recording another weekly EMA and SMA crossover during bearish conditions. After that event, prices dropped sharply again. The chart shows a steep continuation move that exceeded a 50 percent drawdown and led directly into a cycle low.

The 2022 Cycle Repeats the Same Breakdown Structure

The 2022 panel mirrors the earlier patterns. Bitcoin moved both weekly moving averages during sustained weakness, then formed another EMA-SMA crossover which occurred while prices remained under pressure. The chart highlights a rapid sell-off following this event, with Bitcoin falling aggressively toward the eventual bottom.

Each prior cycle shared the same sequence. The moving average crossover appeared during deep bearish conditions, then preceded a sharp capitulation phase. SuperBro highlighted that every prior instance led to a crash exceeding 50 percent within weeks. The analyst described this historical pattern as consistent across cycles.

Current Structure and Short-Term Price Action Diverge

The 2026 panel contrasts sharply with previous charts. Bitcoin trades significantly higher as the weekly EMA and SMA converge rather than break down. Two projected paths appear on the chart. One arrow labeled ‘Business as usual’ points lower, reflecting historical outcomes.

Another arrow labeled ‘This time is different’ points higher, signaling a possible structural deviation from prior cycles. Is Bitcoin breaking its historical post-crossover pattern? Alongside the long-term setup, Bitcoin recorded a sharp intraday move. Price briefly pushed above $93,000 before easing back, according to recent market data.

That move capped a substantial multi-day advance that started below $88,000. Prices accelerated into early January, showing renewed short-term momentum. The short-term chart shows higher highs and lows from January 2 to January 4; momentum intensified during the latest session as the price line cut through resistance zones.

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After the surge, Bitcoin retraced modestly and stabilized near the $92,500 to $92,600 range. The pullback followed a near-vertical rise; volumes increased during the breakout phase. That rise suggests active market participation rather than thin liquidity during the push higher.

SuperBro described the current setup as an unprecedented bullish deviation from all prior cycles. The numbers show a familiar technical signal forming, without the historical collapse that followed.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s weekly structure signals a rare deviation from past bear market cycles as the 100-week EMA and SMA converge without a sharp breakdown. Previous cycles saw deep crashes after similar signals. Current price actions above $93,000, however, suggest a structurally different phase that traders are continuing to monitor closely.