Bitcoin traded near $68,000 on February 22 as new data points fueled a debate about where the BTC price heads by December. Economist Timothy Peterson said a simple “positive months” count over the past two years supports a higher Bitcoin price later this year.
At the same time, Robinhood executives said many retail traders now spread activity beyond the largest tokens during the market dip.
Economist Timothy Peterson said 50% of the past 24 months ended with Bitcoin gains. He argued that the pattern implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin trades higher 10 months after his post, which lands on Dec. 22, 2026.
He said he tracks the share of positive months in rolling 24-month windows to spot possible inflection points.
Data cited alongside the comment showed a split year in 2025, with Bitcoin rising in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while six other months finished lower. Supporters of the approach view the statistic as a way to summarize trend persistence without relying on short-term price swings.
Bitcoin’s price remains well below levels seen earlier this year. CoinMarketCap’s historical data shows BTC near $90,827 on Jan. 11, 2026, compared with around $67,957 at the time of writing. The gap equals roughly a 25% decline, which has kept traders focused on whether Bitcoin can regain momentum in the second half of 2026.
Seasonality adds another reference point. CoinGlass data indicated November as Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%.
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders assigned November an 18% chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, with December close behind at 17%.
Sentiment indicators stayed weak even as BTC held the mid-$60,000 range. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovered near 9 (“Extreme Fear”) on Sunday, signaling elevated caution among market participants. Santiment also reported that fewer social posts now push aggressive Bitcoin price calls, which the firm described as a healthier shift toward neutral positioning.
Robinhood’s Head of Crypto, Johann Kerbrat, said customers increasingly treat the downturn as a chance to buy and diversify. He said many users now go “pretty wide,” rather than focusing only on Bitcoin and Ether. Market data still shows Bitcoin leading overall attention, with CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index sitting in the low 30s out of 100, which signals a continuing “Bitcoin season.”
Flows in regulated products also shaped the backdrop for retail behavior. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five straight weeks of net outflows, totaling about $3.8 billion, which reduced a source of support that helped drive earlier rallies. Traders now watch whether ETF flows stabilize and whether Bitcoin can reclaim key levels after recent volatility.
Meanwhile, Ether traded near $1,973, and broader market participants continued to balance dip-buying against risk controls as macro uncertainty and crypto-specific sentiment stay fragile.
Also Read: Bitcoin News Today: BTC Breaks $89,800 On-Chain Support as Spot ETF Outflows Grow