Bitcoin traded near $77,400 on Wednesday as analysts tracked a wide year-end forecast and several downside risk levels. A long-term Bitcoin price forecast placed BTC in a $90,000 to $255,000 range by the end of 2026. However, short-term charts and derivatives data showed that traders still approach the BTC rebound with caution.
The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a logarithmic valuation model, tracks BTC’s long-term growth while adjusting for weaker gains in each cycle. The model has placed past market peaks near its upper bands, including the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops.
Analyst Sminston said the model gives ‘a pretty reasonable range—conservative case—of $90k–$255k’ by year-end. He also placed the 2027 range between $128,000 and $308,000. The forecast remains model-based, as Bitcoin still trades far below the upper target area.
The latest rebound began near the lower part of the channel in March and April. That zone has acted as long-term support in earlier cycles, according to the model. Therefore, analysts tracking the channel say buyers still defend a key area.
Other forecasts also point to higher levels in 2026. Bernstein analysts kept a $150,000 Bitcoin target for 2026 and moved their $200,000 peak forecast into 2027. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also said Bitcoin could reclaim $126,000 this year.
Bitcoin still faces pressure from several short-term indicators. A multi-month bear flag remains on the daily chart. If the pattern breaks down, BTC could fall below $56,000, based on the measured move from the previous decline.
Onchain data shows a less severe downside area. The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator points to a possible higher bottom between $65,900 and $70,500. CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said stronger long-term holders may help BTC form a slower bottom this cycle.
Bitcoin also holds above its weekly Hull Moving Average near $72,000. Analyst Super฿ro compared the current structure with cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022. In those periods, BTC reclaimed the HMA during bottoming phases and later used it as support.
A weekly close below $72,000 would weaken that structure. For now, traders continue to watch whether Bitcoin can hold the HMA support area and keep the recovery setup active.
Bitcoin’s four-hour chart shows weak follow-through after a retest of the 78.6% Fibonacci area near $76,549. The price recently traded around $76,761 after pulling back from resistance near $82,750.
Analyst Man of Bitcoin marked $74,917 as the next key support level. A break below could push BTC toward lower support zones in the $68,000–$73,000 range, while resistance remains near the $82,000–$95,000 area.
Bitcoin gained about 0.7% to $77,400, yet futures open interest fell. That move suggests traders reduced exposure during the recovery rather than adding fresh positions. Crypto assets futures volume also dropped 29% to $142.76 billion.
Bitcoin and Ether implied volatility stayed near 2026 lows. Deribit said Bitcoin volatility looks cheap and pointed to long straddles for traders expecting a large move in either direction as markets watch key support closely.
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