More than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply now sits below its estimated cost basis as BTC trades near the key $60,000 support level. CryptoQuant data shows that 51.6% of Bitcoin supply is held at an unrealized loss, up from about 34% one month ago.
The rapid increase leaves the market almost evenly divided between coins held at a profit and those held at a loss. Similar conditions appeared near major bear market lows, although the metric does not confirm that Bitcoin has reached its final bottom.
Bitcoin Supply in Loss measures the share of coins whose last on-chain movement occurred at a higher price than the current market value. The price recorded during the last transfer acts as the estimated cost basis for each coin.
A rising percentage means more holders face unrealized losses. Recent buyers usually feel the most pressure during sharp market declines since they purchased their coins at higher prices.
The share of supply in loss has risen from about 34% to 51.6% within roughly one month. Moreover, this increase reflects the speed of Bitcoin’s latest decline and the growing pressure across different holder groups.
More underwater holders may choose to sell to limit further losses. Others may hold their positions and wait for a recovery. The metric tracks coin movements rather than investor surveys, giving traders a direct view of unrealized losses across the network.
Bitcoin has spent approximately 93% of its trading history with most of its circulating supply held at a profit. A market split near 50% is therefore uncommon and has appeared during some of Bitcoin’s deepest downturns.
Comparable conditions developed near the 2015 market low, during the 2018 capitulation and after the sharp decline in 2022. Each period formed close to a major cycle bottom, but prices did not recover immediately after the metric crossed 50%.
During the 2018 bear market, the supply-in-loss measure stayed elevated for several months before Bitcoin reached its final low. In 2022, the metric crossed the same area in June before renewed selling pushed Bitcoin lower in November.
Historical data therefore suggests that a 50% reading may mark a bottoming phase rather than an exact reversal point. Bitcoin can trade sideways or fall further while weak holders sell and stronger buyers absorb available supply.
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $60,892 on June 9 before recovering toward $61,800. The asset lost about 3% over 24 hours as geopolitical tensions, ETF outflows, and weak market demand added selling pressure.
BTC also trades below its main daily moving averages. The 20-day exponential moving average sits near $67,876, while the 50-day average stands around $71,917. The 100-day and 200-day averages are near $74,191 and $79,394.
Price has also moved below the lower Keltner Channel boundary near $62,969. A recovery above this area could signal that short-term selling pressure is easing. Bitcoin would still need to reclaim the 20-day average before the technical structure starts improving.
Liquidation data shows a large concentration of leveraged positions between $60,600 and $60,800. A separate liquidity cluster sits close to $60,000, making the level important for short-term price action.
A decisive break below $60,000 could trigger forced closures of leveraged positions. It may also expose Bitcoin to the liquidity gap between $50,000 and $59,000.
Meanwhile, liquidity has accumulated above the current price between about $62,500 and $64,000. A recovery above $62,000 could force short sellers to close positions and support a move toward the mid-$63,000 area.
Also Read: Hot US Inflation Data Could Trigger Bitcoin and Gold Price Volatility as Rate Odds Rise