Bitcoin has fallen less sharply in the current market cycle than in past downturns, while US spot BTC ETFs posted their first monthly inflows of 2026 in March. Recent market data also showed that many short-term holders remain under pressure, even as whale selling slowed. Together, these trends kept Bitcoin near key support levels at the end of the first quarter.
Bitcoin has declined by about 45% in the current cycle, which is lower than the 80% to 90% drawdowns seen in earlier market cycles. Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said post-all-time-high losses have become less severe over time. He said, “Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous.”
He also said, “Downside risk has been less dramatic in 2026, the current cycle, as well.” Bitcoin reached a cycle low of just above $60,000 on Feb. 6, marking a 52% drop from its Oct. 6 peak near $126,000. It was later trading around $68,000, leaving it about 46% below that high.
The previous cycle saw a deeper fall. Bitcoin dropped about 77% from its 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to a low below $16,000 in November 2022. Fidelity’s comparison pointed to a pattern of smaller swings from one cycle to the next.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said the shallower move may reflect a change in market structure. He said, “This shift signals that Bitcoin is changing from a speculative asset toward a more stable store of value, potentially paving the way for greater adoption in the future.”
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.32 billion in net inflows in March, according to SoSoValue data. That was the first monthly gain of 2026 and the first positive month since October 2025. Even so, the strong March figure did not reverse earlier losses from the quarter.
Bitcoin ETFs had already recorded $1.61 billion in net outflows in January and another $207 million in February. As a result, the category finished the first quarter with about $500 million in net outflows. Bitcoin also fell more than 22% during the quarter, marking its second straight quarterly decline after a 23% fall in the fourth quarter of 2025.
March inflows arrived even as market sentiment stayed weak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained mostly below 20 through much of the month, showing “Extreme Fear.” Trading activity also slowed. Monthly trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs came in at about $79 billion in March, down from $93 billion in February and $87 billion in January.
By the end of the quarter, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stood near $56 billion, while total assets under management reached roughly $87.5 billion.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two levels that traders often use to track broader price trends. It also hovered near the 200-week EMA around $68,000, a zone that has acted as support in earlier downturns.
On-chain data showed continued pressure on short-term holders. Analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price stood near $85,800, well above the market price near $67,700. He also noted that the short-term holder realized price fell to -5.35% year-on-year, a level not seen since the 2022 bear market.
The short-term holder's SOPR remained below 1, at 0.989. That indicated holders in this group were still selling at a loss. The data suggested that price rebounds may continue to face resistance as traders use rallies to exit positions.
At the same time, whale selling eased. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said 30-day whale inflows to Binance dropped from 4,000 BTC to 1,600 BTC during March. However, exchange inflow Coin Days Destroyed rose over the past week, showing that some longer-term holders may still be preparing to sell.