Microsoft has introduced its Majorana 2 quantum chip, renewing questions about Bitcoin’s ability to withstand future quantum attacks. The company says the processor offers far more reliable qubits and supports its goal of producing useful quantum systems by 2029.
Still, the announcement does not mean Bitcoin faces an immediate attack. Microsoft’s technical claims continue to draw doubt from some scientists, while no known quantum computer can currently break Bitcoin’s digital signatures.
Microsoft says Majorana 2 provides an average qubit lifetime of about 20 seconds. Some tests reportedly kept a stable state for up to one minute. Its previous chip recorded stability periods measured in milliseconds.
According to Microsoft, the new chip is ‘1,000 times more reliable’ than Majorana 1. Artificial intelligence tools helped researchers study materials, automate measurements, adjust testing settings and find manufacturing flaws during development.
Materials played a central role in the reported improvement. Microsoft replaced aluminum superconducting parts with lead and changed the semiconductor structure. The company says these changes reduce outside interference and support more stable quantum operations.
Yet researchers have not reached a common view on the announcement. Some physicists remain “sceptical” and want more public data that other laboratories can reproduce. Microsoft has defended its work but has not released every detail, citing protected commercial information.
Bitcoin mining uses SHA-256 hashing, which is not considered the main near-term concern. Instead, researchers focus on elliptic-curve digital signatures that prove ownership and allow users to spend their coins.
A powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically calculate a private key from a visible public key. An attacker could then create a valid signature and transfer funds without the owner’s approval.
No publicly known system can perform that attack at Bitcoin’s scale today. Majorana 2 also remains far from the fault-tolerant machine required to break widely used cryptography. Still, recent research has reduced some estimates for the resources needed to attack 256-bit elliptic curves.
Older Bitcoin addresses may carry greater exposure. Early pay-to-public-key addresses display public keys permanently. Reused addresses can also reveal public keys after users complete their first outgoing transaction.
Microsoft expects commercially useful quantum computers by 2029 if development continues as planned. That date reflects a company target rather than proof that cryptographic attacks will become possible within three years.
Scientists also use different methods when estimating “Q-Day,” the point when quantum machines could defeat common public-key systems. Hardware quality, error correction, logical qubit numbers and operating speed could change the timeline.
Microsoft’s progress therefore adds pressure for earlier planning, but it does not confirm that Q-Day is close. Its topological approach remains one of several designs competing across the quantum computing sector.
Google, Atom Computing, EeroQ and other research groups are also working on qubit stability and error correction. Progress across several systems could matter more than one company’s chip announcement.
Post-quantum signature systems already exist, and US standards officials have approved several algorithms designed to resist future quantum attacks. However, adding them to Bitcoin would require broad technical and community support.
Developers would need to test new signature methods, update wallets and establish rules for moving older coins. Exchanges, miners, custodians and individual holders would also need enough time to adopt the changes.
Bitcoin’s decentralised structure can slow major upgrades when participants disagree over technical choices. Any migration would also need to protect users who do not move their coins before a deadline.
For now, Majorana 2 presents no direct threat to Bitcoin wallets. The announcement instead raises a disputed question over whether quantum hardware is progressing faster than blockchain security preparations.
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