Bitcoin is entering 2026 under dual pressure from long-term security risks and near-term technical levels. Coinbase research warns that quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin encryption, while charts show price consolidation near key resistance.
David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, said quantum computing creates future downside scenarios that markets can no longer ignore. He noted that investor timelines for quantum readiness continue to shorten.
At the same time, Bitcoin trades near $90,000 on Binance, according to TradingView data shared by analyst Ted Pillows. The setup places structural security concerns alongside critical price behavior.
Coinbase research describes a future “Q-day” when quantum computers could break current cryptography. Duong explained that such machines could run Shor’s and Grover’s algorithms efficiently. Bitcoin relies on ECDSA for transaction signatures and SHA-256 for mining. Coinbase said attackers would likely target signatures, not mining, due to scaling limits in quantum mining.
If ECDSA breaks, attackers could derive private keys from public keys. That process could allow unauthorized Bitcoin transfers once keys become exposed.
Coinbase estimates that 6.51 million BTC remain vulnerable today. This equals 32.7% of the total supply tied to reused addresses and older script formats. Exposed outputs include Pay-to-Public-Key, Bare multisig, and some Taproot structures. Satoshi-era coins represent a known portion of this risk.
Each Bitcoin transaction also faces short-term exposure during spending. Public keys briefly appear in the mempool, creating a narrow attack window.
US and EU agencies have directed critical infrastructure to adopt post-quantum cryptography by 2035. Bitcoin developers and groups like Chaincode Labs now assess similar timelines.
Chaincode outlined two scenarios. A rapid quantum breakthrough could force migration within two years, while a gradual path could allow five to seven years.
Proposed solutions include CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+ signatures. Developers expect soft forks to introduce upgrades while preserving network continuity. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price action shows compression. Ted Pillows’ daily BTCUSDT chart marks a former $95,000 support zone as resistance after a November breakdown.
Price fell from above $110,000 and based near $80,000. Since then, Bitcoin has formed higher lows along a rising trendline through December and January. White projection arrows suggest a pullback toward trendline support before a higher move. Ted Pillows said Bitcoin could reach $98,000 to $100,000 before any major downtrend.
Can markets price a distant quantum threat while Bitcoin approaches a decisive technical level?
Also Read: Bitcoin Fear Persists as Institutional Signals Pressure Prices: What's Next?
Coinbase research outlines how quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic security over time, with millions of BTC already exposed on-chain. At the same time, price action shows Bitcoin consolidating near key resistance, with analysts still watching for a potential move toward the 98,000 to 100,000 zone.