Bitcoin entered August under renewed pressure after repeated failures near $65,000 and a fall to a two-week low of $62,400. The decline followed fresh geopolitical tension, ETF withdrawals, and a bearish technical signal. Stronger global stock markets offered the main opposing signal.
Iran said it attacked two oil tankers that tried to cross the Strait of Hormuz under US military escort. Tehran also said it turned back four other vessels, while ship traffic through the waterway remained limited. The attacks raised concerns about energy supplies moving through the key oil route. The US escort also increased the risk of a direct military response and broader market disruption.
Iran also launched drones toward US-linked military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait said it intercepted the drones and reported no casualties. President Donald Trump met Cabinet members at Camp David as the administration reviewed its next steps. The meeting produced no formal announcement of a new military operation.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump ordered preparations for another attack. CBS News reported that the United States could target Iranian energy assets during a weekend escalation.
Meanwhile, the US Senate voted 49–50 against advancing a measure that would restrict Trump’s authority to continue hostilities. The result left the administration’s short-term military choices largely unchanged.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Bitcoin then dropped about $3,000 over several days, extending a pattern that analysts have linked to recent FOMC meetings. Friday’s decline may have absorbed part of the usual post-FOMC weakness. Still, rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns and added pressure across risk markets.
A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields also weighed on Bitcoin. Both trends can reduce demand for non-yielding assets during periods of economic uncertainty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also reversed a three-week inflow streak. The products recorded $61.53 million in weekly net outflows after attracting more than $200 million during the previous run.
Friday changed the weekly balance. Investors withdrew more than $265 million, erasing the effect of Thursday’s $233 million net inflow. The reported US-Israeli proposal for a land blockade of Iran remains under discussion. The plan would seek help from neighboring countries to restrict Iranian imports and exports.
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Ali Martinez said the TD Sequential flashed a major sell signal on Bitcoin’s three-day chart. Traders use the indicator to identify possible changes in price direction. Martinez also linked the signal to the start of August. The month has often brought Bitcoin pullbacks, although the pattern does not determine future price action.
Michaël van de Poppe presented a different market signal. He pointed to Bitcoin’s historical links with the NASDAQ and South Korea’s KOSPI after both indexes surged late in the week. The KOSPI rose about 18%, while US technology shares also strengthened. Van de Poppe said Bitcoin rallied toward $83,000 after a similar market move.
Can stronger global equities offset war risks, Bitcoin ETF outflows, and the latest technical warning? Bitcoin’s next move now depends on several conflicting signals entering August.
Bitcoin begins August below $65,000 as geopolitical escalation, post-FOMC weakness, ETF withdrawals, and a TD Sequential sell signal increase downside pressure. At the same time, sharp NASDAQ and KOSPI gains support a rebound case. Market attention now turns to energy prices, fund flows, and military developments.