Bitcoin may be on the edge of rewriting the history of finance. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is set to catch up with, and possibly overtake, gold’s enormous US$21.7 trillion market cap by 2029, Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise Asset Management, has said. If that occurs, Bitcoin’s price may reach US$1 million per coin.
Speaking at Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction X Spaces on April 30, Dragosch stated that the forecast is based on increasing institutional adoption and the strong inflows witnessed from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “Our internal forecast is US$1 Million by 2029. So that Bitcoin’s market cap and total addressable market will catch up with gold by 2029,” he added.
Looking forward to the next market cycle in 2025, Dragosch painted a base case of Bitcoin reaching US$200,000. But with possible US government intervention, that estimate could reach as high as US$500,000.
“The base case is US$200,000, subject to the US government not intervening,” Dragosch said. “If they intervene, it will move closer to US$500,000.”
He noted early evidence that Washington is looking into how to put together a national Bitcoin reserve, without parting with any of its gold. Options being considered include redirecting tariff revenues and revaluating the worth of gold certificates to generate a ‘paper surplus,’ said Bo Hines, a member of the Presidential Council of Advisers on Digital Assets.
Among the largest boosters of the optimistic sentiment are the performances of US-based Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust became history’s fastest-growing ETF, with expectations usually made in a debuting year completely thrown out by the fund’s phenomenal performance.
Dragosch stressed that this initial success indicates that in the second and third years, we will see increasing inflows. The cycle will be extended by these structural inflows.”
Another stimulus could come from traditional finance. Major US wirehouses, such as Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, haven’t fully opened access to Bitcoin ETFs yet. But Dragosch says when they do, it will be a game-changer. “These wirehouses hold over US$10 trillion of client assets. Not even half have opened their channels of distribution to Bitcoin ETFs,” he said.
What was at one point a niche asset created during a time of financial crisis is now threatening to overthrow gold, the centuries-long store of value. With structural ETF inflows, institutional money, and potential sovereign support, Bitcoin is quickly evolving into a mainstream finance powerhouse. If protections are correct, the way to US$1 Million might not be a question of if, but when.