Coinbase and Gemini are pushing beyond spot trading, and analysts remain divided on the payoff. Both digital-asset exchanges are adding payments tools, derivatives, and event-based contracts to build steadier revenue.
Research notes from William Blair, Goldman Sachs, and Mizuho show different expectations for 2026. The firms agree on one point, however: execution will determine whether diversification reduces exposure to market swings.
William Blair maintained an outperform rating on Coinbase and said the market undervalues its expansion plans. The broker said Coinbase aims to add equities trading, prediction markets, crypto futures, and decentralized trading access. It also highlighted white-label stablecoin services for businesses that want blockchain payment rails. William Blair argued that these products can widen Coinbase’s role beyond a retail trading venue.
The firm acknowledged that near-term spot volumes have softened across the digital-asset market. Even so, it expects non-trading income to become more meaningful as the product mix changes.
Goldman Sachs echoed that view when it upgraded Coinbase to a buy rating. Goldman said infrastructure and non-trading revenue can cushion results during volatile periods. Still, the bank warned that intense competition and interest-rate sensitivity could pressure margins in 2026.
Gemini has also worked to reduce reliance on spot fees by pairing trading with consumer payment products. The exchange has expanded its spending card operations and promoted an all-in-one app approach.
Mizuho Securities said the card program drives a “flywheel effect” as cardholders often become active exchange users. Mizuho estimated that roughly half of Gemini cardholders now trade on the platform, which can support user engagement.
Gemini has also launched a predictions market, which adds a non-spot product line. Analysts view prediction-style contracts as another way to keep activity steady when token turnover slows. Mizuho maintained an outperform rating on Gemini and pointed to user growth and international expansion as potential tailwinds.
However, the firm also flagged risks from regulatory change and market volatility, which can disrupt product rollouts and compliance spending.
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Mizuho surveyed retail and institutional investors and found mixed sentiment toward crypto-native exchanges. The survey indicated that many participants prefer fintech equities when positioning for 2026.
At the same time, expectations for Coinbase and Gemini diverged sharply. Some investors forecast strong performance if diversification gains traction. Others expect underperformance if trading activity remains weak.
Mizuho kept a neutral rating on Coinbase and said the stock still tracks Bitcoin closely. The firm noted that retail trading fees remain a major driver, even as Coinbase grows other businesses. It acknowledged potential support from cost controls and interest income tied to stablecoin balances. Yet Mizuho said those positives face offsetting risks from competition and rate shifts.