XRP is hovering around the psychologically important $1 level as weakening technical momentum, subdued ETF activity and softer XRP Ledger usage increase downside risks.

XRP trades near $1.01 after falling roughly 6% over the past week. The token remains below key major moving averages, making $1 the key level separating short-term consolidation from potentially deeper losses.

XRP ETF Demand Remains Muted

Institutional demand has provided limited support recently. US-listed spot XRP ETFs have been muted and fresh inflows have been relatively weak.

However, cumulative ETF inflows sit around $1.51 billion, while assets under management are near $950 million. Suggesting institutional exposure has not vanished, but the new demand has softened enough to limit its ability to support a meaningful price recovery.

At the same time, the broader crypto mood stays a bit guarded. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 38, staying in the ‘Fear’ zone, with geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns weighing on risk appetite.

Derivatives Activity Climbs Despite Price Weakness

XRP perpetual futures open interest increased to approximately 2.74 billion XRP from 2.62 billion XRP. Compared with roughly 2.12 billion XRP on August 5.

XRP futures open interest surged by $171.74 million within a single hour on August 11, a 20.46% increase that signals traders are positioning aggressively ahead of the August 12 US Consumer Price Index release.

Rising Open Interest indicates additional leveraged positions are entering the market, although it does not reveal whether traders are predominantly betting on higher or lower prices. 

XRP Ledger Activity Has Slowed

On August 5, XRP Ledger transactions were around 2.81 million, by August 9, they fell to about 1.57 million, a drop of nearly 44%.

Low transaction activity does not automatically mean that XRP prices will also fall, but if network usage is slipping together with weak market momentum, that can contribute to stronger bearish sentiment.
Meanwhile, development continues. Proposed ‘Single Asset Vaults’ (XLS-65) and the ‘Lending Protocol’ (XLS-66) may end up widening XRPL asset custody and lending features over the longer term.

Also Read: How XRP Ledger is Building a Privacy Layer for Tokenized Wall Street Assets

What Happens if XRP Breaks Below $1?

Technical indicators currently favor sellers. XRP trades below its 50-day EMA near $1.10, 100-day EMA around $1.18 and 200-day EMA near $1.37.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 38.23, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains below zero with a negative histogram.

A decisive daily close below $1 could therefore expose XRP to the next support around $0.95. Continued selling could bring $0.90 into focus if $0.95 also fails.

Conversely, holding $1 could allow XRP to attempt a recovery toward $1.06-$1.10. A stronger trend reversal would require XRP to reclaim its major moving averages alongside improving ETF demand and broader crypto sentiment.

FAQs:

1. Why is the $1 level important for XRP?

The $1 mark is a major psychological and technical support zone for XRP. A sustained daily close below it could increase selling pressure and shift attention toward lower support levels.

2. How low could XRP fall if it breaks below $1?

If XRP decisively loses $1, the next important support is around $0.95. Continued weakness below $0.95 could potentially bring the $0.90 level into focus.

3. What are the major resistance levels for XRP?

Immediate resistance sits around $1.06-$1.10, including the 50-day EMA near $1.10. Higher resistance appears around the 100-day EMA at $1.18 and 200-day EMA near $1.37.

4. What does rising XRP futures open interest indicate?

Rising Open Interest shows that more leveraged positions are entering XRP derivatives markets. However, it does not indicate direction by itself, as those positions can include both longs and shorts.

5. Could XRP recover above $1.10?

A recovery is possible if XRP successfully defends $1 and buying momentum improves. Reclaiming $1.06-$1.10 would be an initial positive signal, while stronger confirmation would require recovering major moving averages.