Bitcoin’s massive price surge may soon come to an end. On-chain indicators suggest a bearish or stagnant outlook over the next 6 to 12 months, according to CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju. He cited falling liquidity and selling pressure from whales offloading their Bitcoins.
Ju diagnosed the market with a lack of bullish sentiment based on key metrics MVRV, SOPR and NUPL. He checked the trend of Bitcoin’s price with the help of a 365-day moving average. In his words, this method is able to capture important turning points in the market.
Some traders pushed back against Ju’s pessimistic stance. Many users on X expressed skepticism over his most recent predictions. One trader contended that current conditions suggest that Bitcoin is temporarily dormant until the price advances in a bullish direction. Another argued that starting from May and continuing until July, liquidity injection would provoke price growth.
The next move from Bitcoin is considered to be greatly affected by the decisions of the Federal Reserve. If quantitative easing (QE) is implemented again, it may result in renewed purchasing power for Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin struggles, U.S. stocks have rebounded. The S&P 500 rose by 0.64%, the Dow gained 0.85%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.31% on Monday. European markets also saw gains, except for QinetiQ, which fell nearly 21% after revising revenue forecasts.
Economic forecasts are shifting as well. The OECD cut its global GDP growth estimate to 3.1%, down from 3.3%. U.S. GDP projections for 2025 were also lowered to 2.2% from 2.4% due to geopolitical risks and trade barriers.
Stock futures slipped slightly early Tuesday. Dow futures fell 0.18%, S&P 500 dropped 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 declined 0.31%. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide updates on interest rates.
Current market data suggests no immediate rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged. However, traders are closely monitoring signals for a future shift in monetary policy.
Ki emphasized that Bitcoin lacks fresh liquidity to sustain its rally. He pointed out that ETF inflows have been negative for three weeks, weakening bullish momentum. He admitted that while he remains a long-term Bitcoin holder, the data now points to a bearish phase.
With the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision and shifting global economic trends, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain. Many investors are waiting to see if macroeconomic conditions will favor another rally or confirm the end of the bull market.