Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience, holding firm above several key support zones while showing potential for upward breakouts in the near term
Bitcoin (BTC) sits around $97,000, showing a 3% rise in the past day. This jump ties to positive global trends like progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a shift in investor interest toward riskier assets. While these factors unfold, Bitcoin remains steady above critical support levels and shows signs it might break higher soon.
Bitcoin's price movements show a clear bullish trend. Technical tools and chart setups point to more upward moves ahead. The asset trades in an important range that appears crucial to analyze when looking at short- to medium-term trading strategies.
Immediate Resistance: The $100,000 mark remains a psychological and technical ceiling. Bitcoin has tested this level several times but has yet to establish a clear breakout. A sustained push above this level would signal the potential for another parabolic move.
Current Support: Bitcoin has strong support around $92,000, while a firmer base lies near $88,000 to $90,000, coinciding with its 50-day moving average.
Long-Term Support: The 200-day moving average, currently near $85,000, acts as a strong long-term floor. A breakdown below this would raise concerns of a deeper correction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently around 68, indicating positive momentum. While not yet in overbought territory, the index suggests increasing buying interest.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A bullish crossover in early May supports further upside. The MACD line has risen above the signal line, confirming a bullish trend.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV is also rising steadily, confirming that the upward price movement is backed by volume. This indicates that institutional and retail investors are accumulating positions.
Despite these bullish indicators, one cautionary signal is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which has slipped into negative territory at -5.07. This means U.S.-based investors are showing slightly more caution than their Asian counterparts, possibly due to regulatory uncertainty or macro concerns.
On-chain data provides further insights into the strength of the current price trend. Several important metrics reflect strong fundamentals behind Bitcoin’s price:
There has been a 15% increase in addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC since the beginning of May. This signifies growing interest among small and mid-level investors, often referred to as retail accumulation. These wallets, while not individually significant, collectively represent increasing grassroots support for Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Although the week began with net outflows of $85.7 million from Bitcoin ETFs, this appears to be a temporary blip rather than a trend reversal. Major institutional players, including investment firms and corporate treasuries, have continued to build long-term Bitcoin positions. Notably, MicroStrategy recently disclosed another strategic acquisition, adding several hundred BTC to its portfolio.
The divergence between ETF activity and direct accumulation by corporate entities highlights an ongoing shift in how institutions prefer to gain exposure to Bitcoin, favoring on-chain custody over regulated funds in certain market cycles.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads 59, placing it in the "Greed" category. This reflects growing investor confidence and the expectation of further gains. Historically, scores in the 50–60 range suggest a strong but not overhyped market environment, providing room for sustainable growth without fear of immediate pullback.
Several macroeconomic developments have played a vital role in supporting Bitcoin’s price trajectory in recent weeks. These include geopolitical developments, regulatory clarity, and a broader trend of digital asset adoption by states and institutions.
Improving diplomatic and trade relations between the United States and China have sparked renewed interest in high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. With both countries signaling openness to de-escalation, global markets have shifted into a more bullish posture. Bitcoin, often seen as a barometer for macro risk appetite, has responded accordingly.
In a landmark move, the state of New Hampshire has officially launched a digital asset reserve, allowing up to 5% of state funds to be allocated to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin being the primary asset. This initiative not only lends credibility to Bitcoin as a store of value but also signals growing interest from public institutions.
This trend mirrors the adoption seen in other regions where local governments and municipalities are exploring ways to integrate cryptocurrencies into public finance frameworks.
The approval and rapid expansion of Bitcoin ETFs across global financial markets have simplified access for traditional investors looking to gain exposure to digital assets. Despite the often choppy shopping patterns in ETF flows, even the availability of these instruments at all has added a new dimension of legitimacy and accessibility that this market space never had before.
Asset managers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest, are still holding firm to significant Bitcoin exposure via these regulated vehicles, further bolstering confidence from their mainstream investor base.
Market analysts and financial institutions have provided extreme projections for Bitcoin’s value by the end of 2025 and beyond. These projections are very much driven by macroeconomic trends, halving cycles, institutional adoption, and network metrics.
The most conservative but still bullish estimate is Standard Chartered’s, which sees Bitcoin at $120,000 in Q2 2025. Our optimistic projection takes into account macroeconomic uncertainty, the effects of the halving event, and the further adoption of Bitcoin in fledgling developing economies.
Tom Lee, a prominent crypto bull and head of research at advisory firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, is predicting that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 before the end of 2025. His bullish case lies in all this expected liquidity flooding global markets and Bitcoin’s promise as a digital store of value, or a gold alternative.
Maybe the most audacious forecast is from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who recently indicated that Bitcoin might someday rise to as high as $700,000 if institutional adoption goes even just 2%–5 % portfolio allocation.
Technical forecasting models such as CoinCodex and TradingView are predicting that Bitcoin may average between $121,000 and $133,000 throughout the second half of the year if the current momentum continues.
Bitcoin’s price action in May 2025 highlights a period of consolidation in a larger bullish trend. After a dismal 2022, a slew of signals — from robust technical setups to favorable on-chain fundamentals to a supportive macro backdrop and growing adoption by both private and public institutions — are converging to create a positive picture for the rest of the year.
While volatility and corrections are part of the game, bullish sentiment is palpable. Short term, I would keep an eye on the $100,000 resistance as the key make-or-break and then a potential $90,000 support. If Bitcoin were to reclaim $100K in a material way, FOMO – both institutional and retail – would likely bring about the next wave of interest, sending the asset to new all-time highs.
Experts and investors alike will have to keep a close watch on macro trends, whale movement, and regulatory developments to steer through this unpredictable, high-stakes market.