Get expert price analysis, on-chain trends, and the latest market moves driving Bitcoin in May 2025. Stay ahead of breakouts, ETF flows, and global crypto news
Around $94,900, Bitcoin remains unchanged from the day before and has stuck to a range between the day's low of $93,287 and high at $95,198. It may look that the momentum is fizzling out, but Bitcoin price confidently holds onto the good gains it achieved in April, at almost 14% within that month. The Crypto is now in consolidation mode as traders wait to see where the market will move next.
Institutional actions significantly impacted the Bitcoin price path recently. Noisiest was the transfer of more than 9,645 BTC ($911 million) from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a sign of a potential strategic shift. Large transfers like this often lead to a great deal of speculation about further implications for the market's mood or fund rebalancing.
Coincidentally, Bitcoin ETFs reversed their trends. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF reported a record-high capital inflow of $267 million on a single day. This figure represents further optimization of investors in Bitcoin as long-term assets. In contrast, Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF recorded a massive outflow of $137.5 million on the same day, pointing to cashing profits or repositioning in anticipation of expected volatility in the markets. Such contradictory inflows could mean that the battle has between bullish and cautious institutions.
Bitcoin charts exhibit a bullish structure from a technical viewpoint, albeit presenting a short-term indecision. After all, the 50-day moving average is sitting right at $91,700 and is acting as a dynamic support line. In longer-term bullish considerations, the 200-day moving average at $85,300 is well below the current market price.
The current reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 71, denoting overbought conditions. However, merely being overbought does not bring about a possible pullback, particularly in a strong uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to show bullish momentum as the MACD line remains well above the signal line.
This ascending triangle pattern has formed on the four-hour chart. This kind of technical setup mostly indicates bullish continuation, particularly after a huge upward spike. The upper resistance of this triangle is at $95,000. A clear break above could trigger an immediate move toward $101,000. Sustained momentum may even push Bitcoin toward $110,000, depending on the broader market sentiment.
The economy of the United States contracted at a rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year 2025, the first contraction in economic output for over three years. The consumers have now been squeezed with tighter credit conditions and eroding real income, and this has kindled fears of a recession. In such an environment, risk assets like bitcoin often tend to experience considerable volatility through changes in investor sentiment.
Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties continue to play a role. Major economic blocs fight disagreements that wobble traditional markets and then drive some asset movements to decentralized assets in hedge mode. Amid these concerns, global investment banks have raised their projections for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered recently updated its forecast, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in the second quarter. The bank also maintained its year-end target of $200,000, driven by robust institutional demand and increasing capital flows away from U.S. equities and bonds.
On-chain data further supports the bullish case for Bitcoin. Apparent demand has shifted positive for the first time since February. Over the past 30 days, net accumulation has increased by roughly 65,000 BTC, suggesting a return of long-term investors. These inflows highlight growing conviction in Bitcoin’s role as a store of value amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Additionally, miner behavior has remained relatively stable following April’s halving event. Mining difficulty and hash rate continue to trend upward, indicating strong network security and continued investment in mining infrastructure. Advances in energy-efficient mining equipment and the growing use of renewable energy have improved the sustainability profile of Bitcoin mining. This shift has enhanced the asset’s appeal to environmentally conscious investors and institutional allocators under ESG mandates.
Market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “Greed” zone, but it has cooled slightly from last week’s extreme readings. This moderation suggests that the market has absorbed recent price gains without entering speculative excess territory.
Volatility remains elevated, particularly around key psychological levels such as $95,000 and $100,000. Options markets show a growing interest in call contracts targeting $110,000, indicating that traders are preparing for potential upward moves. However, the put-to-call ratio also shows elevated hedging activity, underscoring the presence of downside protection strategies.
Bitcoin’s near-term price action hinges on its ability to decisively break above $95,000. A successful breakout from the ascending triangle could trigger a rally toward $100,000, a key psychological level that also aligns with long-term resistance. If momentum carries beyond that level, Fibonacci extension models place the next targets between $105,000 and $110,000.
On the downside, failure to breach the $95,000 ceiling could result in a short-term pullback toward $91,000, where the 50-day moving average provides support. Deeper corrections could test $88,000–$89,000, especially if macroeconomic data or regulatory developments introduce fresh concerns.
Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and any new regulatory signals from the SEC regarding crypto market structure reforms. These events could impact liquidity and investor sentiment significantly.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase just below $95,000 as of May 1, 2025. Technical indicators lean bullish, with both the moving averages and MACD supporting the possibility of continued upside. Institutional interest remains strong, though mixed flows from ETFs signal cautious positioning.
On-chain metrics and improved mining fundamentals reflect growing long-term confidence, while macroeconomic concerns—especially the potential U.S. recession—have created a fertile environment for Bitcoin’s role as a hedge asset.
A breakout above $95,000 could propel the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs. However, traders must remain alert to macroeconomic data releases and policy signals that could shift market dynamics in the days ahead. The next few sessions will likely determine whether Bitcoin is ready to push toward $100,000 or consolidate further before its next major move.