S&P 500, Nasdaq Trade Flat After Sticky PCE as Nvidia Earnings Take Focus

U.S. stocks traded close to unchanged on Wednesday after July inflation data came in hotter than expected. The report kept attention on interest rates, Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. 

Trading stayed cautious before Nvidia’s second-quarter results after the closing bell. Investors also watched falling oil prices, company earnings, and Meta’s settlement of a child-safety lawsuit. 

Moreover, new updates showed higher September rate-hike odds, mixed corporate earnings, and a major Meta settlement. New market forecasts also placed the S&P 500 near 7,900 by year-end.

US Stock Market Moves Off Opening Lows

Wall Street opened slightly lower after the inflation release. The Dow fell 0.06% to 53,547, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.14% to 7,666.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.20% and opened at 26,099.58. The indexes later moved closer to flat as technology and industrial stocks supported the wider market.

Microsoft and Apple each gained about 0.5% during early trading. Nvidia slipped 0.4%, while financial stocks moved lower before several large companies reported results.

PCE Data Lifts September Hike Odds

The headline personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in July. Its annual rate held at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast.

Core PCE, which removes food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. Both core figures matched market estimates.

Fed funds futures placed the chance of a September rate increase near 44%. Traders assigned a 36% probability immediately before the report.

The Federal Reserve has held its policy range at 3.50% to 3.75% since December. Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union said, “The United States still has an inflation problem.”

Nvidia Earnings Set the Next Market Test

Nvidia will report fiscal second-quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell. Analysts forecast earnings of $2.09 per share on revenue of $92.28 billion.

Investors will closely examine data-center revenue, chip demand, China sales, memory costs, and the next quarterly forecast. The company will hold its earnings call at 5 p.m. Eastern Time.

Nvidia holds the largest weighting in the S&P 500 and carries a market value above $5 trillion. Its results can move chip shares and other companies tied to artificial intelligence spending.

Salesforce, CrowdStrike, HP, Okta, and Synopsys will also release results after the market closes. Those reports will provide more data on software, cybersecurity, computers, and semiconductor demand.

Corporate News Drives Wider Stock Moves

Meta agreed to pay a maximum $16.68 billion to settle claims brought by several US states. Court papers also require changes to Facebook and Instagram.

The claims accused Meta of designing services that harmed children and collecting young users’ data improperly. 

• Meta shares fell 0.4% in early trading after changing direction several times.

• Intuit dropped about 4% after its fiscal 2027 revenue forecast missed analyst estimates. Its latest quarterly earnings and revenue still exceeded forecasts.

• Abercrombie & Fitch advanced after stronger quarterly profit led the retailer to raise its annual outlook. 

• J.M. Smucker gained about 4% after improving its sales forecast.

• Boston Scientific fell after reporting a cyberattack that disrupted operations. 

• SolarEdge rose after an analyst upgrade cited expected benefits from a new US communications policy.

US Stock Market Tracks Oil and Bonds

The 10-year Treasury yield moved near 4.65%, up two basis points from Tuesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year yield traded near 5.18%, while the two-year yield reached 4.21%.

Brent crude fell about 1.8% to $85.70 per barrel. Reports of possible diplomatic progress involving Iran and Oman supported hopes for improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US dollar index increased to about 99.02. Meanwhile, gold moved slightly lower after recently approaching $4,700 per ounce.

Revised government data showed the economy expanded at a 1.5% annual rate during the second quarter. Consumer spending drove growth, while higher imports offset part of that increase.

Personal income rose 0.4% in July, and consumer spending increased 0.2%. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will address the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.

A new poll of 46 market strategists placed the median S&P 500 year-end target at 7,900. That level stands 2.9% above Tuesday’s close.

The benchmark closed Tuesday at 7,677.28 and has gained about 12% during 2026. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio stood at 20.2, down from 22 at the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, surveyed strategists placed the Dow’s year-end target at 54,500. S&P 500 companies are tracking 33.5% annual adjusted earnings growth for the second quarter.

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