Stellar Lumens Price Prediction: XLM At Risk of 14% Losses as Stunning Correlation with XRP Emerges

The Stellar price is trading at $0.1176 as of 3:00 a.m. EST, down 0.5% over the last 24 hours.

Last week, news of the appearance of a BlackRock XRP ETF filing on the Delaware Corp. Commission website spread quickly causing an initial leap in the price of the remittance token. The filing later turned out to be false causing a sudden correction in Ripple's price.

Interestingly, this incident revealed a curious correlation between the XRP price and the XLM price. While the news was about the Ripple Lab's token, Stellar Lumen's price had surged in a similar manner with a stunning correlation emerging between the two payment tokens.

The period of XLM's price rise has appeared alongside the token's growing positive correlation with XRP on the daily timeframe. At the moment, the correlation coefficient between the two assets is 0.95 (see below), suggesting they are moving in a near-perfect tandem.

 XLM/XRP Price Correlation

The price trends in XLM and XRP markets typically mirror one another, given Stellar is a breakaway blockchain payment project founded by Ripple co-founder Jed McCaleb.

For instance, while XLM trades 65% higher year-to-date, XRP's price has also surged around 82% since the year began.

Therefore, as XLM price risks dropping approximately 14% in the near term, XRP is likely to be under similar bearish stress.

  Stellar Price Bulls Could Pull XLM to $0.1

The XLM price action between Oct. 11 and Nov. 24 led to the appearance of an inverted V-shaped pattern on the daily chart. This follows an initial climb that saw the Stellar Lumens price surge 33% from $0.1011 in a sharp recovery that was stopped by buyer congestion from the $0.134 level.

Bears booked profits on this rally resulting in a sharp correction to the current levels. As the price seeks to complete the inverted v-shaped pattern, it could drop a further 14% from the current price toward the pattern's neckline around the $0.1 demand zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was facing down and the price strength at 47 in the negative region suggested that the market conditions still favored the downside.

XLM/USD Daily Chart

XRP price action has a similar technical set-up as it also trades in an inverted V-shaped pattern as XLM. Failure by the bulls to sustain the ongoing recovery could see the bears overpower them, pulling XRP toward the $0.47 level and completing the pattern.

XRP/USD Daily Chart

This analysis shows that the two tokens have always seemed to run in the same market cycles and the correlation in their price movements has been a testament to that.

One X user, while responding to Blockchain Backer's post on how XLM and XRP prices moved in tandem with the ETF filing news, reasoned that the correlation was because both digital assets actually "share the same holders."

Other analysts argue that the similarity in the movement of the price could be because the XLM and XRP have the same holders.

Investors should be careful when considering this correlation as Blockchain Backer warns "Those same holders would have dumped XLM for XRP" if the listing would have turned out to be true.