Russian Invasion has Caused Massive Grain and Food Collapse: Satellite Data

Satellite data shows Russia is attempting to completely destroy the export of Ukrainian grain.

According to a new analysis of satellite data nearly 10 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been affected by the Russian invasion. One in six of Ukraine's grain storage facilities— which have a maximum capacity of 58 million metric tons—have been affected by the conflict, either through damage, destruction or falling under Russia's control.

The Conflict Observatory, the organization that directed the analysis through datasets, received substantial evidence of damage to grain silos from either indiscriminate or targeted bombardment through Satellite data. And as the conflict rolls on, concerns are being upraised about crops that requires planting now. "If Ukraine does not have enough storage capacity, farmers may not plant a winter wheat crop," told Nathaniel Raymond, a co-leader of the Humanitarian Research Lab and lecturer at Yale's School of Public Health who conducted the project. "If they can't store the upcoming harvest, it'll be a crisis of availability."

To obtain a true sense of the destruction caused to Ukraine's grain storage facilities, the Conflict Observatory, in partnership with the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, developed an object detection algorithm that holds the ability to analyze commercial satellite imagery to discover previously unidentified silos that had sustained destruction during the conflict. The team utilized historical satellite images as well as images of storage facilities known to have sustained harm to upskill the algorithm to find other facilities that had also been affected. The research concentrated on particular areas that were within range of recognized missile bombardments. From that point, the researchers were able to correctly estimate approximately how much grain had been wasted.

However, through Satellite data, the researchers were unable to analyze every facility—the country has about 1,300-grain silos, of which the report examined 344—it is the biggest assessment to date.

"There have been efforts to estimate the damage to grain storage capacity in Ukraine because of its clear and present danger to the global food supply," commented Raymond. "The amount of grain that can be stored in these facilities that we looked at represents almost a quarter of Ukraine's grain supply."