.png){kind=logo}
Bitcoin has shown an on-chain signal seen near the closing stages of earlier bear markets. The move comes as BTC trades near $64,665, above the $60,000 area that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has described as a likely market bottom.
The signal does not confirm that Bitcoin has started a new bull market. It instead shows a change in the average purchase prices of recent and older holders. ETF inflows and the Federal Reserve’s July meeting may now test the recovery.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis has moved below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis. The model uses a three-day confirmation period before treating the downward crossover as an “end-of-bear-market” signal.
Short-term holders own Bitcoin for less than six months. Long-term holders keep coins for more than six months. The adjusted long-term measure removes supply held for over seven years, limiting the effect of coins outside the active market.
The short-term holder cost basis has dropped from about $112,500 to $69,000 during the downturn. The decline shows newer holders acquired Bitcoin at lower prices, pulling their average entry level closer to the market price.
Darkfost stated that this doesn’t mean the bear market ends the moment the signal fires. The analyst added that the crossover points to a final bear phase, while a later upward crossover would offer stronger evidence of a new bull cycle.
Armstrong stated in June that Bitcoin had likely found a bottom near $60,000. BTC has stayed above that zone, but the rebound has gained little ground. Bitcoin traded near $64,665 on July 19, with an intraday range between $63,900 and $64,883.
The Coinbase chief later asked users on X whether the bottom was in. About 56% voted no, while 44% voted yes. The result shows traders still question whether the June low can hold.
Earlier cycles show that Bitcoin can recover after deep declines, although the timing and size of each rebound vary. The current crossover also leaves room for more volatility before a lasting price recovery develops.
Bitcoin could trade sideways, or retest support before the short-term holder cost basis turns higher. A move below $60,000 would weaken Armstrong’s call and raise fresh questions about the cycle low.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $132.3 million in net inflows on July 17. The result marked a fourth straight positive session. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $136.5 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted a $4.2 million outflow.
The flows add buying support as Bitcoin holds above $64,000. Lower trading volume, though, shows the move lacks broad participation. A daily close above $65,500 would strengthen the recovery structure, while a break below $63,600 could expose $63,000.
Monetary policy is another key factor. The Federal Reserve will meet on July 28 and 29. Policymakers will assess inflation, growth, and financial conditions before announcing the rate decision.
Bitcoin often reacts to changes in rate expectations and liquidity. Until the cost basis turns upward and price clears nearby resistance, the latest signal indicates a possible late bear phase rather than a confirmed bull market.
