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ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, has doubled wafer output since 2024, yet production growth has stalled near 240,000 wafers per month. Global DRAM prices continue rising as AI demand strains supply. Lower yields and US equipment controls remain major limits on further expansion.
Omdia said CXMT reached about 240,000 wafers monthly at the end of last year. ChosunBiz cited industry insiders who expect that production level to remain unchanged throughout 2026.
Two constraints continue to limit expansion. Washington restricts exports of advanced chipmaking equipment, while CXMT's first-generation 10-nanometer DRAM process still trails leading producers on manufacturing yield.
Counterpoint Research puts CXMT's yield near 50%. It said that rate remains 42% below yields achieved by Samsung and SK Hynix on comparable production. The capacity gap also remains wide. ChosunBiz estimates CXMT's rated output equals roughly half of SK Hynix's capacity and about 30% of Samsung's.
That gap raises one pivotal question. Can CXMT expand fast enough to loosen the shortage before new fabs arrive?
TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 13% to 18% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026. Strong AI server demand and tight supply remain key drivers. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects DRAM prices could rise more than 400% from early 2024 through the end of 2026. It links that increase partly to hyperscalers securing supply through long-term agreements.
The pressure now extends beyond data centers. Omdia expects memory chips to generate more than half of total semiconductor revenue in 2026 as manufacturers prioritize higher-margin AI products.
That shift raises component costs for smartphones, PCs, and other consumer electronics. Meanwhile, Chinese supply has not expanded enough to offset broader market tightness.
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CXMT has become a larger force in the memory market. Reuters reported $7.5 billion in first-quarter revenue and an $8.6 billion Shanghai listing. The company also signed a five-year memory agreement worth more than $7 billion with ByteDance. In some cases, it charged Chinese buyers more than Samsung and SK Hynix.
Counterpoint estimates CXMT now represents about 9% of global DRAM bit shipments. Beijing has also asked the company to prioritize domestic customers as demand inside China absorbs existing production. Goldman Sachs estimates CXMT will meet only 41% of China's DRAM demand in 2026. That share could rise to 50% by 2028, leaving continued dependence on foreign suppliers.
SK Hynix approved 54 trillion won, or about $38 billion, for two new fabs in early August. Its Y2 DRAM plant will not reach the cleanroom stage until mid-2029. Samsung's memory unit also posted its highest quarterly revenue and said supply constraints would remain until the second half of 2026. Counterpoint expects CXMT capacity to reach 420,000 wafers monthly by 2027.
The planned increase will rely on new production facilities in Shanghai and Beijing. Until those plants add capacity, existing supply will remain stretched by Chinese demand and the wider global memory shortage.
CXMT doubled wafer output since 2024, but production has stalled near 240,000 wafers monthly. Lower yields and US equipment limits restrict further growth. Meanwhile, AI demand keeps DRAM supply tight, while China remains dependent on foreign suppliers as new capacity takes time.
