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Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have tightened sharply in recent months, pushing BBWidth to levels last seen in late 2023. The indicator tracks the gap between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. The previous comparable squeeze appeared in October 2023. Bitcoin later rose more than 330% between October 2023 and October 2025 as volatility expanded and price moved higher.
A squeeze does not predict direction, though it can signal that low volatility may soon end. The latest setup comes as Bitcoin trades within the $60,000 to $70,000 range.
TradingShot said Bitcoin has spent the past month consolidating above its 50-day moving average. This average has provided near-term support during the current trading range. Still, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to converge above the market. Bitcoin has remained below both averages since November 2025, leaving a major resistance cluster overhead.
What happens if Bitcoin’s volatility expands before price clears that resistance zone? TradingShot said a decisive break higher could support a new upward trend, while rejection could renew downside pressure.
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TradingShot identified $50,000 as a possible downside target by early October if weakness returns. It also cited $41,000 as a deeper and more extreme bearish scenario. Bitcoin traded at $63,631, down about 0.5% over 24 hours and 0.8% across the week. Price remained slightly above the 50-day SMA at $63,375.
At the same time, Bitcoin stayed below the 200-day SMA at $70,172. The 14-day RSI stood at 54.17, showing neutral momentum with a slight bullish bias. Glassnode said sellers appear to be losing momentum after Bitcoin spent early August between $63,500 and $65,000. The firm did not confirm that the market had reached a cycle bottom.
Bitfinex said 54.6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply currently sits in profit. Its analysts said that level puts the average holder near breakeven and has historically coincided with later correction stages. Glassnode described the market as compressed rather than capitulating. This view matched Bitcoin’s narrow trading range and the unusually low volatility now visible through BBWidth.
Bitcoin’s BBWidth has fallen to its lowest level since October 2023, while BTC holds above its 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. Seller pressure has also eased, yet the moving-average resistance cluster still leaves the next large price move unresolved.
