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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, driven by rising U.S. dollar liquidity resulting from quantitative easing-style policies and growing institutional investment, including significant ETF inflows.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028. Speaking at the TOKEN2049 event in Dubai, Hayes attributed the potential surge to an increase in US dollar liquidity, driven by quantitative easing-style policies.
With Bitcoin currently trading around $95,000 and maintaining its upward trajectory since early 2022, Hayes drew parallels between the current economic climate and the third quarter of 2022. He suggested that a similar central bank response could result in a significant influx of capital into riskier assets, such as Bitcoin.
Hayes believes the U.S. will be forced to increase the money supply to address economic imbalances. He claims this will occur through programs resembling quantitative easing or liquidity injections. A similar action in 2022, involving a US$2.5 trillion injection via the Federal Reserve’s repo facility, helped stabilize both traditional and digital markets.
He noted that political developments, especially trade tensions under former President Donald Trump, have introduced uncertainty. Hayes pointed to recent tariff announcements followed by a 90-day pause as an example of unpredictability that unsettled global markets. Nevertheless, he remains firm that a rise in dollar liquidity could be the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s long-term surge.
According to market indicators, Bitcoin signals increasing market demand. Data acquired from Coinglass reveals that the Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remains above US$60 billion. The high levels of participation in the derivatives market by traders and institutions represent bullish signals, typically indicative of market strength.
At the same time, US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen considerable inflows. These products added over US$3 billion in net new additions in the past week. Institutional investors appear to have robust demand, as evidenced by nearly US$1 billion from BlackRock in a single trading session.
Furthermore, the upcoming 2028 Bitcoin halving event is another key factor that market analysts are considering, as it decreases block rewards for mining operations. Previous halving events triggered major price appreciation, which continued for multiple years afterward. Various optimistic Bitcoin price forecasts reflect these two interconnected factors: reduced supply from halvings and increased market liquidity.
Hayes revealed that hedge funds could enhance market liquidity without necessitating direct policy changes by the Federal Reserve. These funds enable the purchase of Treasuries, which creates space for dollar-based liquidity to return to the crypto market. This indirect path could benefit assets like Bitcoin as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to align with President Trump's trade positions may lead to a hands-off monetary policy. Hayes reasons that this scenario could bolster a greater role in maintaining financial stability. Hayes says this scenario could favor Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
