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Bitcoin continues to face tightening liquidity conditions as several on-chain and derivatives indicators move into risk territory. Realized losses rise across the network while long-term holder profitability weakens. Futures open interest also falls sharply as options traders increase demand for protective put positions.
The realized price and its associated MVRV-based bands show Bitcoin trading near the upper risk range. The True Market Mean and Active Investor Mean both trend below spot values. The chart places a spot near the top of the long-term valuation envelope. This alignment often appears when market participants absorb elevated unrealized gains.
The realized loss volume climbs as Bitcoin forms a slight downturn near recent highs. This suggests more coins move at a loss compared to earlier sessions. However, the realized price itself remains stable within its historical range. Transitioning to the True Market Mean shows the same pattern of tightening bands.
Additionally, the Realized Holder floors stand below the spot. These floors include the short-term holder realized price and long-term holder cost basis. Spot continues to test the short-term level as traders react to shifting market conditions. Movement toward this threshold shows more sensitivity to short-term flows.
Long-term holders experience declining profitability as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio trends lower. The metric shows large swings over past cycles, but the latest drop places the curve near cycle inflection points. Periods where the ratio dips close to the zero line often reflect realized losses overtaking realized gains for long-term wallets.
The chart reveals long-term holders reducing profit dominance as markets consolidate. This shift appears similar to past phases where long-term holders distribute supply into strength. However, the long-term realized curve remains above capitulation levels. This means structural weakness is not shown on the chart.
Additionally, the asset price plotted alongside the indicator shows a downward bias during profit compression. This relationship recurs throughout the dataset. The combined movement suggests macro holders respond to changing demand conditions.
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Futures open interest across all exchanges falls sharply. The chart records a clear drop from earlier peaks and continues trending lower. This reduction signals active deleveraging in perpetual markets. It also aligns with rising realized losses. Short-term traders trim exposure as volatility increases.
Furthermore, the put premium chart shows a strong rise. The cumulative premium for strike 80k surges throughout the timeframe. Meanwhile, the strike 85k premium remains elevated. Demand for downside protection increases as spot prices soften. The put/call premium relationship also tilts toward defense.
Additionally, the BTC price line moves lower while put premiums rise. This divergence reflects protective hedging across short-to-mid-term tenors. Options traders position for possible downward swings.
Bitcoin shows tightening liquidity as realized losses rise and long-term holder profitability weakens. Futures open interest falls while put premiums increase, signalling stronger defensive positioning. Traders may monitor these shifts closely as market conditions continue to react to broader demand changes.
