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Bitcoin climbed above USD 80,000 in September with stronger market indicators than during its May move through the same level. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said the firm’s Bull Score Index has reached 80, signaling ‘Extra Bullish’ conditions. The index stood at 50 and showed a ‘Neutral’ reading when Bitcoin traded near the same price in May.
Bitcoin has gained 14% over the past week and reached a seven-month high near USD 87,000. Broader crypto sentiment improved as the US Securities and Exchange Commission advanced efforts to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
Strategy Inc. also returned to the market with another Bitcoin purchase after a buying pause that lasted nearly a month. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded USD 998.95 million in Monday inflows, their strongest daily total in 11 months.
Moreno contrasted Bitcoin’s latest move with market conditions seen in May. Although the cryptocurrency crossed the same broad price area during both periods, CryptoQuant’s internal readings now show stronger fundamentals.
The Bull Score Index combines several market and on-chain signals into a broader assessment of Bitcoin conditions. Its rise from 50 to 80 marks a clear shift between the two periods identified by Moreno.
Bitcoin’s latest advance also pushed the price above major long-term technical levels. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000 and moved above USD 84,000.
Market participants often watch that long-term average when assessing broader cycle conditions. Ju described the level as an important dividing line between bearish and bullish market phases.
The latest move raises one central question: Can improving on-chain conditions support Bitcoin as its larger valuation requires increasingly greater capital inflows?
Ju pointed to Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV, as another part of the current market picture. The metric compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization.
Realized capitalization values each Bitcoin at the price recorded when it last moved. CryptoQuant uses the measure to estimate the combined on-chain cost basis of Bitcoin holders.
An MVRV reading below one means Bitcoin’s market capitalization has fallen below realized capitalization. Under that framework, the average holder would sit at an unrealized loss.
Ju said MVRV never fell below one during the current cycle, even during large Bitcoin drawdowns. Previous bear-market bottoms produced deeper losses and stronger signs of holder capitulation.
CryptoQuant also tracks its Profit and Loss Index, or PnL Index. The model combines MVRV, net unrealized profit and loss, and other holder profitability measurements.
Ju said the index now shows less extreme cycle tops and bottoms. He also said bottom formations have developed at progressively higher levels of aggregate holder profitability.
The PnL Index’s 365-day moving average has now reached what Ju called a ‘meaningful inflection.’ However, the model relies on historical on-chain behavior and does not guarantee further price gains.
Also Read: Bitcoin Rally Eyes USD 90K as Oil Drops and ETF Inflows Hit USD 1B
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator had already moved into bullish territory earlier this year. The PnL-based signal turned bullish for the first time since March 2023 after crossing its long-term threshold.
Still, Ju has argued that Bitcoin’s growing market size has changed how strongly fresh capital can affect prices. Earlier cycles began from much smaller valuations, allowing limited inflows to generate far larger percentage gains.
In July, Ju estimated that about USD 697 billion in realized-cap growth had accompanied a 689% Bitcoin gain during the current cycle. By comparison, nearly USD 2.7 billion generated gains above 55,000% during Bitcoin’s early years.
He estimated at the time that another parabolic advance could require more than USD 1 trillion in additional realized capital. This relationship reflects the much larger amount of money now required to move Bitcoin by similar percentages.
Ju’s latest outlook calls for a more moderate cycle than Bitcoin experienced in earlier years. He expects the current bull cycle to produce gains of about three to five times rather than another move above ten times.
He also expects any subsequent bear market to prove milder than previous downturns. Ju linked that view to Bitcoin’s larger valuation and increased institutional ownership, which reduce the price impact of each new dollar entering the market.
Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has risen to 80 as the asset reclaimed its 365-day moving average near USD 83,000. Strong ETF inflows, positive MVRV readings, and higher holder profitability distinguish the current setup from May, while CryptoQuant expects future cycle gains to become less extreme.
