Litecoin Price Prediction: LTC Recoils to $58 As Recovery Remains Elusive

Litecoin (LTC) attempted to recover between Sept. 12 and 17, but the buyers were unable to sustain the higher levels, resulting in minor corrections to the current price. At the time of writing LTC is trading at $63, down 2% over the last 24 hours. The proof-of-work (PoW) coin is also trading 5% below its value seven days ago.

On the longer timeframe, LTC remains extremely bearish as it trades 23% lower over the last month and has dropped more than 28% over the last six months.

While the broader market conditions are to blame for a bearish LTC, a lot of credit also goes to whales whose activity has negatively affected the price of the altcoin.

Being one of the oldest cryptocurrencies in the world, LTC has a higher user and holder base. Unfortunately, a significant amount of the circulating supply is still in the hands of whales who hold more than $100,000 worth of LTC in their wallets.

At the time of writing whale activity is accounting  for transactions amounting to only $1.22 billion, low levels which were last seen in December 2020. This drop is very concerning since even the daily average is well above $11 billion at its lowest.

This lack of activity among Litecoin whales is worrying because these addresses hold close to 9 million LTC tokens worth $567 million at current rates. Representing nearly 12% of the entire LTC's circulating supply, whale activity could reignite the price rise again, bringing LTC close to $80.

LTC Price Underpinned by the 50-day SMA

LItecoin's recovery between Sept. 12 and 17 was rejected by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which was sitting at $69. A successful rise above this level would have flipped it back to support, which is important in reclaiming the 100- and 200-day SMAs at $79 and $83 respectively as well as pushing the altcoin towards $90.

However, failing to overcome the 50-day SMA caused LTC to fall back to test the support at $63, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovering in the bearish zone below the neutral line at 45.

If the RSI retests the neutral line as support it will be considered as a confirmation of a bullish signal, which is reflected in the price bouncing back.

LTC/USD Daily Chart

Also note from the daily chart above the LTC is trading close to a very significant support floor at $58. The last time the price bounced off this level in December 2022, it went on to display an amazing 81% rally toward $105. If buyer congestion from this area can lead to increased demand pressure, Litecoin could display a similar price action with the target set at the $116 swing high. This would represent an 81% uptick from the current price.

This would be possible if the Litecoin price finds bullish support and flips the resistance level at the 50-day SMA into a support line to invalidate the bearish thesis, or else a further decline is not off the cards either.

A daily candlestick close below $58 would invalidate the positive narrative as the LTC price drops to find support around the $50 psychological level.