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Bitcoin price continues to trade in a bullish range between $104,300 and $106,400, maintaining strong momentum following favorable macroeconomic signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The sustained uptrend has been fueled by significant capital inflows into the market, alongside declining exchange reserves, indicating strong buying pressure and long-term holding behavior.
Over the past week, Bitcoin recorded over $800 million in net outflows from centralized exchanges, reinforcing the narrative that investors are moving their holdings off trading platforms into cold storage. This trend signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term growth, as fewer BTC remain available for immediate sale. If the current liquidity trends persist, the market could enter price discovery mode, pushing Bitcoin toward new all-time highs.
However, $103,600 remains a key support level, which must be defended to sustain the bullish momentum. Failure to hold above this zone could trigger a correction toward lower levels, while resistance at $106,400 marks a crucial breakout point for further gains.
Recent statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) have reinforced skepticism about Bitcoin’s potential integration into global central bank reserves. The ECB president suggested that despite Bitcoin’s increasing institutional adoption, it is unlikely to be held by central banks in the near future. This stance contrasts with growing discussions around Bitcoin adoption in policy circles, particularly in the wake of Donald Trump’s recent comments on digital currency regulations and financial policies.
The ongoing debate around Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment remains a key driver of sentiment. The increasing preference for spot Bitcoin ETFs over direct crypto exchange investments signals a shift in retail and institutional capital allocation strategies.
Optimistic momentum in Bitcoin price action above $106,500 has been accompanied by an increase of approximately $1.2 billion in futures open interest. This surge highlights renewed speculative activity, with leveraged positions contributing to heightened volatility.
Retail spending volumes have dropped significantly, with small balances declining by 48% over the last six months since November 2024. The shift in retail behavior suggests that individual investors are opting for passive Bitcoin exposure via ETFs, rather than actively trading on exchanges.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a market capitalization surge of 78%, rising to $125 billion since November 2024. The popularity of ETFs has introduced a new wave of liquidity to the Bitcoin market, providing investors with institutional-grade exposure while eliminating the complexities associated with self-custodial storage and private key management.
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (MA) continues to trend upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the coming weeks. The 200-day moving average (MA) also signals strong support at lower price levels, acting as a safeguard against potential corrections.
Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest that Bitcoin remains in neutral-to-bullish territory, with room for further upside. The current market structure favors consolidation before a potential breakout, with buying volume sustaining Bitcoin’s strength above critical support zones.
If Bitcoin clears the $106,400 resistance, the next key psychological level is $110,000, which could serve as a launchpad for further upside. On the downside, losing support at $103,600 could trigger short-term selling pressure, testing liquidity at $101,000 before a possible recovery.
Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, fueled by institutional demand, declining exchange supply, and increasing ETF adoption. While macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties persist, the market structure favors continued bullish momentum. Maintaining support at $103,600 will be key in sustaining the rally, while breaking above $106,400 could lead to new highs in the near term.
With Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios expanding, its price trajectory remains dependent on market liquidity, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic factors. The upcoming months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum and enter new price discovery zones.
