Bitcoin’s Historical Trend Points to US$138k in March

Historical trend indicates bitcoin's potential to double in value in March

Bitcoin briefly jumped above US$138,000 on crypto platform Binance.US earlier today, following a sharp price spike on the BTC/tether trading pair, according to exchange statistics.

Prices briefly reached those levels at 6:50 a.m. UTC before quickly returning to parity with other bitcoin spot markets. Other bitcoin trading pairs operated normally.

The move seemed unlikely to be motivated by a trader seeking to pay a roughly 450% premium for bitcoin, which presently trades for just over US$29,000 in European morning hours on Wednesday.

Instead, the unusual wick was most likely caused by insufficient liquidity for Bitcoin vs tether on Binance.US. According to market depth statistics, a US$400,000 bitcoin purchase on this trading pair may boost prices by 2%, but the equivalent influence on the bitcoin/USD trade pair requires at least US$842,000.

Market depth refers to the amount of liquidity in a financial market. According to a Kaiko analysis published earlier this month, Binance.US's market depth has decreased 76% since May, indicating that market makers and dealers have abandoned the exchange.

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating positive price movements. A BTC rally to Tuesday's high of US$69,064 would offer bulls a shot at the all-time highs of US$69,276 and US$70,000.

BTC-spot ETF market flows, as well as the US Jobs Report, should be considered. However, a drop below the US$66,000 handle may indicate a move towards the US$59,176 support level. The 14-day RSI value of 73.83 places BTC in overbought territory. Selling pressure may increase at the Tuesday high of US$69,064.