Tesla stock trades near $435, showing steady momentum ahead of Q3 earnings.
Q3 deliveries hit a record 497,000 vehicles, boosting investor confidence.
Regulatory probe into Full Self-Driving adds short-term uncertainty for Tesla.
Tesla stock has been sensitive to both operational results and regulatory developments recently. In October, its share price fluctuated as the market digested a strong vehicle delivery report and the looming uncertainty associated with self-driving regulation.
The gains in electric vehicle demand and the industry rotation back toward growth names have added momentum, although many investors remain cautious about whether Tesla can justify its elevated valuation.
Tesla stock price is around $435.15 in the recent session. The intraday range has been from $426.43 to $440.36, reflecting volatility as investors adapt to news and position ahead of earnings. The opening price was $434.82, showing a tight gap compared to recent swings.
The stock has been choppy recently. On October 10, the stock closed at $413.49, down over 5 percent that day. Earlier in the week, it traded as high as the low $440s. Over the last several days, Tesla has attempted to regain ground after pullbacks, testing support, and trying to reclaim resistance zones near prior highs. Historical charts show that a key overhead resistance zone lies near $489, which is close to its all-time high closing range. Below, significant support levels appear in the $330–$367 region.
The technical chart indicates that momentum is tenuous. A breakout above major resistance may spark an uptrend resumption, but a failure to sustain current levels would expose the downside toward lower support bands.
The spotlight is on Tesla's third-quarter report due later in October. On deck are automotive margins, delivery volumes, energy installations, and commentary on software and autonomy. The recent news of record vehicle deliveries (497,099 in Q3) has supported optimism, but there is fear that the strength was back-ended by customers queuing up to take advantage of expiring tax credits.
A fresh investigation by US regulators into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) suite has sparked warnings. The inquiry affects almost 2.9 million Tesla vehicles and focuses on whether FSD led to traffic offenses such as red light running or improper lane changes. Any negative results or required overhauls might cost money, slow autonomous rollouts, or chip away at investor confidence in Tesla's autonomy goal.
Some of the analysts have become even more positive. Dan Ives, a strong Tesla bull, upped his price target to $600 based on AI and autonomous upside. Others are still wary, citing the misalignment between high valuations and near-term fundamentals. Some institutions view limited near-term potential unless Tesla beats expectations in terms of margins.
Melius Research has initiated coverage with a buy rating and a target of $520, suggesting about 20 percent potential upside from current levels.
Tesla’s margin stability is under pressure from rising competition, especially from efficient, lower-cost EV makers, and increasing costs of raw materials and parts. Launching lower-price variants may attract volume but could compress gross margins. Global demand fluctuations, especially in China and Europe, also introduce risk.
Also Read: Tesla Stock: Is it a Buy, Hold, or Sell Now?
In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla produced over 447,000 vehicles and delivered more than 497,000 vehicles, both figures setting new records for the company. Its energy storage deployments also broke previous highs, reaching 12.5 GWh for the quarter. These delivery numbers were well above what many analysts had forecast, reflecting a surge of demand in advance of the expiration of US electric vehicle tax incentives.
Most of the delivered volume came from the Model 3 and Model Y lines. In that quarter, about 481,166 of the deliveries were these two models, confirming that Tesla’s traditional passenger vehicle business continues to drive its volume. Some analysts had earlier projected deliveries between 442,000 and 465,000 units, but the actual result exceeded those expectations.
Full-year projections for 2025 deliveries remain lower than last year. Many forecasters estimate that Tesla might deliver around 1.61 million vehicles this year, which is about 10 percent below its 2024 output. To hit such a target, the company must deliver roughly 389,500 vehicles in the final quarter.
Earlier in the year, Tesla’s performance had lagged. In the second quarter of 2025, the company delivered over 384,000 vehicles, and production was just above 410,000 units. That context sets up the third-quarter surge as a particularly strong rebound.
Tesla commands a premium valuation compared to legacy automakers, largely due to investor expectations around future growth from software, autonomy, and energy. The price-to-earnings multiples (both trailing and forward) remain very high, suggesting that much of the upside is already priced in.
To support financial metrics, Tesla has engaged in share repurchases. While buybacks can help earnings per share and provide valuation support, they do not by themselves address the underlying challenges of sustaining margins, especially if the company ramps lower-price models or faces competitive pressure.
Tesla’s ability to generate strong free cash flow and manage capital expenditures is central. Investments are needed in new megafactories, battery capacity, autonomy hardware, and R&D. If free cash flow weakens, funding those investments or returning capital to shareholders could become more challenging.
Also Read: Is Tesla Stock a Good Investment in 2025?
If the upcoming Tesla Q3 earnings report delivers strong margins, favorable guidance, and positive commentary on software or autonomy, Tesla could see a further rally. A surprise in any of those metrics may shift sentiment quickly.
However, risks are material. Regulatory outcomes on FSD could impose negative surprises. Competition from lower-cost EV players could erode pricing power. If Tesla fails to sustain margin improvements while scaling down its price models, the valuation premium could compress.
In chart terms, a sustained move above the $440–450 zone might open the path toward $480–490, but weakness below current levels may bring $370–330 into focus.
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