Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note on Thursday, January 22, as investors balance mildly positive early cues against a structurally weak technical and macro backdrop. While GIFT Nifty signals a gap-up start, the index was trading around 25,360, up nearly 180 points from its previous Nifty futures close. 

On Wednesday, the Sensex fell 1,065.7 points or 1.28% to close at 82,180, while the Nifty 50 declined 353 points or 1.38% to end at 25,232.5. 

Sector-wise, most of the indices closed negatively, exceptions being Nifty Metal (+0.6%) and Oil & Gas (+0.3%), which managed to give some support amid widespread weakness. 

The selling pressure spanned over all segments, with the Nifty Midcap index going down by 1.14%, whereas the Nifty Smallcap index was down by 0.90%.

Sensex Outlook

From a technical perspective, the Sensex formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart and had a lower-top structure in the intraday timeframes.

The index is short-term oversold, which could allow for a brief pullback. However, sentiment remains weak below 82,300. 

The index may test 82,000-81,700 on the downside, while a bounce back over 82,300 could lead to further rise towards 82,500-82,800.

Nifty 50 Outlook

Nifty 50 has decisively broken below its recent consolidation range near 25,500 and is now hovering around its 200-day EMA near 25,150-25,110, a critical medium-term support. 

A sustained move below 25,100 could open the door for a deeper correction toward 24,800. Resistance remains firm in the 25,500-25,580 zone.

Derivatives data show heavy call writing at 25,50 and 25,100 at the lower side, where there is heavy put writing, indicating a tight and vulnerable band.

The Indian volatility index (VIX) soared by 7% to 12.70, showing that uncertainty is increasing.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty marked its closure at 58,800, with a 1.02% decline, falling below its 20-day EMA. 

The market remains bearish, and the upside is limited until the index decisively breaks above the resistance of 59,200-59,300. A break below the current levels could lead to a further drop in the short term.

The 58,200-58,100 range will act as an immediate support for Bank Nifty, and any sustained move below the 58,100 level could lead the index downward to the 57,800 level.

Also Read: US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Rebounds as Trump Softens Greenland Stance, Dollar Slips

Macro & Market Triggers

Continued FII selling (Rs. 2,938 crore), a record-low rupee near 91.19/USD, and global uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and developments at the World Economic Forum continue to weigh on sentiment.

Analysts believe markets are likely to remain range-bound with stock-specific action driven by quarterly earnings dominating near-term trade.