The Indian stock market opened higher ahead of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled from October 5 to 7. The Nifty 50 opened 110.45 points higher at 22,532.40 from the previous day's close, while the Bank Nifty started at 54,840.65, gaining 389.9 points. The Sensex opened 431.25 points up at 72,340.95.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap index falling more than 1% and the Nifty Smallcap index losing nearly 1%. The Indian rupee opened higher by 10 paise at Rs. 96.22 per dollar on Monday versus Thursday's close of Rs. 96.32.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling streak in Indian equities on October 1, offloading a net Rs. 9,484.22 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained strong buyers with net purchases of Rs. 10,041.84 crore.

Sensex Outlook

Technically, the Sensex formed a long bearish candle on the weekly chart. On the intraday charts, it continued to make lower highs and lower lows, indicating a largely negative trend. 

“We believe the market’s short-term texture is weak but oversold. Therefore, the possibility of a pullback rally from current levels cannot be ruled out. On the downside, 71,300 is a key support zone, while 72,200 is an immediate resistance level. A move above 72,200 could extend the pullback to 73,000-73,200. Conversely, a break below 71,300 could accelerate selling pressure and push the market down to 71,000-70,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

Nifty 50 Outlook

The Nifty 50 fell 3.11% last week and remains below its 21-day, 55-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating continued weakness. Selling pressure has remained on recovery attempts.

“On the downside, 22,250 is the immediate support, a sustained break below 22,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the way towards 22,000. On the upside, 22,700 is the key resistance zone. Any rebound towards this area is likely to face selling pressure, keeping the sell-on-rise strategy intact,” said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd.

The 22,250 will remain a key support level. A decisive break below this level could bring 22,000 into focus, while 22,700 remains the key resistance level to watch on the upside.

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Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty also remained under pressure, extending its losing streak to the sixth consecutive week. The index declined around 2% and continues to trade below its key moving averages.

54,000 is the immediate support, while a breakdown could drag the index to 53,500. On the higher side, 55,000-55,100 remains the key resistance zone. Investors will closely watch the RBI’s policy decision and market reaction for cues on the next direction.