IRFC’s Fall From Peak to Rs. 124: After hitting a lifetime high of Rs. 229 in June 2024, IRFC shares have declined nearly 46% over ten months. Now trading at Rs. 124, the stock appears to be in a consolidation phase. While short-term traders might be cautious, long-term investors are beginning to see a value opportunity, especially with renewed government focus on railway infrastructure.
Why Analysts Are Still Bullish on IRFC: Despite the dip, market experts believe IRFC is positioned to benefit from government-backed projects. With the Union Cabinet approving four major railway infra projects worth Rs. 18,658 crore, IRFC could be the primary financing arm for these developments. Analysts suggest IRFC may hit Rs. 160–165 within a year if it sustains above Rs. 140.
Business Model Built for Resilience: IRFC acts as the dedicated finance arm of Indian Railways, providing structured lending to railway infrastructure companies. This gives the company a low-risk and high-visibility revenue model. With consistent demand from government-backed borrowers, IRFC’s business model offers stability amid market volatility.
Technical Rebound Signs Emerge: According to technical analyst Anshul Jain, IRFC is forming a higher low on the weekly chart and has printed a bullish Marubozu candle, a classic signal of trend reversal. If the stock breaks above Rs. 140 on a closing basis, a sharp rally towards Rs. 160–165 could follow in the next 9–12 months.
Smart Money Eyes a Value Entry: IRFC’s steep correction is now being viewed as a healthy valuation reset. “Many PSU stocks were overbought in the past year, and IRFC’s 46% drop now offers a rational price point for long-term investors,” says Gaurav Goel of Fynocrat Technologies. Institutions and value investors are reportedly watching this level closely for entry.
Government Projects Could Fuel Earnings: IRFC is expected to be the lender of choice for newly sanctioned projects under India’s Rs. 18,658 crore railway expansion plan. As infra companies approach IRFC for credit, loan disbursements and interest income are projected to surge in FY2026, boosting both margins and investor confidence.
Should You Buy and Hold IRFC? : Experts say yes, if you're investing for the long term. Strong fundamentals, a government-backed mandate, attractive valuations, and technical signals make IRFC a compelling case. With its low-risk lending model and potential for re-rating, IRFC may become a wealth creator in your portfolio if you can ride out short-term volatility.
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