Foldable shipments could rise sharply even as the wider smartphone market faces a major decline.
Book-style and tri-fold models could challenge tablets with larger screens in pocket-sized designs.
Lower prices, stronger durability, and better software remain critical for mass adoption by 2028.
Foldable phones have moved from a small luxury category to one of the few bright spots in a weak smartphone market. IDC says global foldable phone shipments reached 20.6 million units in 2025, a 10% rise from the prior year. IDC’s late-2025 forecast called for about 30% growth in 2026, while its May 2026 outlook placed the 2026 rise closer to 20%. IDC now expects 1.09 billion smartphones to ship in 2026, a 13.9% drop.
The tablet market gives foldables another clear target. Global tablet shipments reached 151.9 million units in 2025, yet IDC expects about 138.9 million units in 2026, an 8.6% decline. Many tablet owners use these devices for video, web use, books, email, casual games, travel, notes, and light work. A large foldable can cover many of those tasks from one device. A closed screen handles calls and quick tasks, while an open screen offers a much larger view.
The strongest case for tablet replacement comes from book-style foldables, not small flip phones. Counterpoint expects book-style models to hold about 65% of global foldable phone shipments in 2026, up from 52% in 2025. These devices open into a tablet-like display while they can fit in a pocket when closed. Samsung’s latest Fold 8 Ultra shows the direction with an 8-inch inner display and a 5,000mAh battery.
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Apple’s entry could give the category a major boost. IDC expects the first foldable iPhone in 2026 and estimates that Apple could take more than 22% of global foldable unit shipments and 34% of foldable market value in its first year. IDC also places the expected average sale price near $2,400. Exact Apple hardware details remain uncertain, so those figures should stay forecasts rather than confirmed facts.
Samsung has also posted a strong signal from its latest generation. The Galaxy Z8 series reached 1.44 million pre-orders, more than 30% above the prior generation. Almost half of those orders went to the larger Fold 8 rather than the Flip 8. A larger foldable can replace a tablet more easily than a compact flip model can. IDC expects foldables to post about a 17% compound annual growth rate through 2029, with foldables set to exceed 10% of smartphone market value by then.
Tri-fold phones could push this idea further. Huawei’s Mate XT opens to a 10.2-inch display, a size close to many compact tablets. A Korean market report cited about 6,000 sales for Samsung’s early tri-fold model at around $2,899. The high price shows the main problem with this design. A tri-fold needs lower cost, lower weight, better battery life, and high durability before it can challenge ordinary tablets at scale.
Foldables still cost far more than standard phones. IDC expects foldables to sell at about three times the price of regular smartphones. Current premium models often sit around $1,500 to more than $2,100. A buyer can pair a $700 phone with a $350 tablet for about $1,050, so a $1,800 or $2,400 foldable faces a hard value test. A price near $1,000 to $1,300 could make the one-device idea much stronger by 2028.
Foldables are unlikely to replace every smartphone and tablet by 2028. A more realistic result sees the foldable replace the need for both devices among a larger group of buyers. Tablets will retain clear value for art, large documents, spreadsheets, education, games, and family use. Laptops will remain vital for heavy work. Yet a foldable can become the main personal device for travel, media, communication, and light productivity.
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For 2028, the main challenge is for manufacturers to produce foldable smartphones that are slim, sturdy, affordable, and intelligent, enough to eliminate the necessity of having a second device. Present statistics indicate that the foldable phone market is expanding, foldables have gained a larger market share, and Apple is likely to join the trend. Modern devices bring down prices and provide market stabilization.
1. Could foldable phones replace tablets by 2028?
Foldable phones could replace tablets for many personal tasks, but larger tablets should remain useful for creative work, education, gaming, and heavy productivity.
2. How fast is the foldable phone market growing?
IDC expects foldables to post about a 17% compound annual growth rate through 2029, with more than 10% of smartphone market value by that point.
3. Why could Apple’s entry matter?
Apple could bring foldables to a much larger premium audience and strengthen developer support for software that works across different screen sizes.
4. What is the biggest barrier to foldable adoption?
Price remains the biggest hurdle. Premium foldables can cost $1,500 to more than $2,100, far above many standard smartphones and tablets.
5. Could tri-fold phones replace both phones and tablets?
Tri-fold phones have the strongest potential for device consolidation. Models with displays near 10 inches could offer a tablet-like experience while retaining a phone-sized form when closed.