XRP price slipped back below the $2 level as Glassnode flagged an on-chain setup it last saw in February 2022. The analytics firm tied the move to shifting cost bases across holder age groups.

In a note shared Monday on X (formerly Twitter), Glassnode said XRP now shows a similar cost-basis configuration to early 2022. The firm added that “psychological pressure on top buyers builds over time,” framing conditions as a patience test.

XRP Cost-Basis Rotation Raises Stress for Mid-Term Holders

Glassnode’s focus centered on realized price by age band, shown with a 7-day moving average (7-day MA). The metric tracks the average cost basis of holders based on how long wallets have held XRP.

The firm said the 1-week to 1-month cohort accumulated below the realized cost basis of the 6-month to 12-month band. Consequently, newer demand entered at lower levels than what many mid-term holders paid.

That divergence can shape how supply behaves during rebounds. When spot trades below a cohort’s realized price, that group sits underwater on average. However, if XRP price rallies back toward that level, some holders may sell to reduce risk near breakeven.

Glassnode’s “Realized Price by Age” chart highlighted a gap between short-term and 6–12 month cost bases. The firm said that the gap resembles the structure it observed in February 2022.

$2 Psychological Level Remains a Key XRP Zone for Inflows

Glassnode also referenced an earlier post dated Nov. 24, 2025, which it quoted again in the latest discussion. The firm called $2 a “major psychological zone for Ripple holders.”

It said that since early 2025, each retest of $2 linked to heavy realized losses. Glassnode estimated $0.5 billion to $1.2 billion per week in losses on those retests, suggesting stress-driven exits clustered near the handle.

Those figures imply that $2 acts as more than a chart level. Instead, it can function as a behavior level where selling decisions intensify as price revisits the zone.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.9294, down about 2%, with an intraday high near $2.03 and a low near $1.93.

Also Read: XRP Coils in Year-Long Wedge as Breakout Pressure Builds: Traders Brace For a Bullish Landing

Whale Flows and Futures Open Interest Point to Caution

The notes also pointed to distribution indicators during the rebound. The XRP Whale Flow 30-day moving average (30-DMA) remained in negative territory, which can suggest continued net selling.

Still, the same summary said selling pressure had eased, while outflows hovered around $20 million per day. Meanwhile, reported trading volume dropped 22% over 24 hours, signaling reduced activity.

XRP derivatives positioning also weakened. CoinGlass data showed XRP futures open interest fell over 4% to about $3.42 billion in 24 hours. In addition, futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance declined almost 3% and 5%, respectively.

Analysts cited key levels that could steer near-term direction. Several said XRP needs to reclaim $2.05 to limit downside risk, while $1.80 stood out as an important support. Another note said XRP failed to hold a rally above $2.35 and could drift toward $1.85 after breaking multiple support levels.

Some analysts warned of a deeper downside if support fails. Veteran trader Peter Brandt and analyst Ali Martinez predicted XRP could fall toward $1 if bulls fail to defend $1.80 amid continued whale selling. Other commentary said lower-timeframe setups could offer buy-the-dip entries, while urging tighter risk control.