Ripple’s XRP traded near $1.90 after a rebound attempt failed to hold, keeping downside risks in focus. The move followed a bounce from January 20 to January 21 that stalled near $1.98 before sellers regained control.
The market has lacked a fresh catalyst, so traders have focused on chart signals and fund flows. That mix has kept XRP vulnerable when rallies lose momentum.
XRP is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart. The neckline sits near $1.80, which places that level at the center of near-term risk.
If XRP breaks below $1.80, the pattern points to an 18% decline, according to projections. That forecasted move would put pressure on buyers who have tried to defend recent support zones.
Money flow data has reinforced the bearish view. Between January 19 and January 22, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) moved lower along with price, which signals money moving out rather than building demand.
ETF flows have also turned less supportive. On January 20, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of about $53.3 million, which outweighed nearby inflows for the period. The next two days showed modest positive flows. However, those inflows did not push CMF back above its falling trendline.
According to Sosovalue data, spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $7.16 million on Jan. 21 and $2.09 million on Jan. 22, while trading value fell from $29.87 million to $18.05 million and total net assets slipped from $1.39 billion to $1.37 billion.
That gap matters because weak inflows reduce support during selloffs. As long as CMF stays weak, the chart breakdown risk remains active.
Wallet data shows why XRP struggled to hold above $1.98. HODL Waves data indicates wallets holding XRP for one week to one month have sold steadily since January 8.
Over that span, their supply share fell from about 4.77% to about 2.24. That is a drop of more than 50% in roughly two weeks.
This group often buys dips and sells rebounds. That pattern has added supply during each bounce attempt, which has capped recoveries near $1.98.
Moreover, exchange flow data has supported that view. XRP exchange balances shifted from net outflows of 7.68 million XRP earlier in the month to net inflows of about 201,000 XRP by January 23, which signals more tokens moving onto exchanges.
Also Read: XRP News Today: XRP ETFs Extend Inflow Streak as Market Price Holds Steady Near $2
Long-term holders have continued to add XRP since around January 10. Their net position change has not shown sharp drawdowns even as the price weakened. That steady buying has helped reduce the pace of declines. It has also suggested that long-term holders are not driving the increase in exchange inflows.
Investors and whales continue to add XRP, but that support may not offset selling if inflows stay soft and shorter-term wallets keep taking profits. A firmer turn likely needs stronger demand and lighter selling, while a break below $1.80 would increase downside risk.