Tesla stock rose on Tuesday after UBS upgraded the shares to Hold from Sell, while keeping its price target at $352. The move came ahead of Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report, due on April 22. UBS said the current share price now reflects both near-term pressure in Tesla’s core car business and the longer-term potential tied to artificial intelligence, including robo-taxis and Optimus robots.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Tesla to Hold from Sell while keeping the price target unchanged at $352. He said current levels “more evenly balance” near-term demand pressure, lower electric vehicle sales, and higher spending on Tesla’s future AI-related projects.
The change did not amount to a bullish call. However, it offered support after a weak stretch for the stock. Tesla shares rose by 2.9% to $362.93. By comparison, S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.1%.
The upgrade followed a sharp decline in Tesla shares this year. Coming into Tuesday trading, the stock was down about 22% in 2026, although it remained up 40% over the past 12 months. The shares were also in an eight-week losing streak and had fallen 18% since Tesla posted fourth-quarter earnings in late January.
UBS said the recent drop has changed the risk-reward picture. Spak added that the stock may still remain volatile and said it often trades on “sentiment and narrative” rather than only on financial results.
Tesla’s car business remains under pressure. UBS pointed to weaker EV demand, rising competition from Chinese automakers, a limited product lineup, and higher capital spending as key factors weighing on the near-term outlook.
The firm is forecasting 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2026, which would be roughly flat from the prior year. UBS then expects deliveries to grow at an annual rate of 7% and reach about 2 million units by 2030. This remains below broader Wall Street expectations, which are closer to 3 million units.
Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report will offer a clearer view of those trends. Wall Street expects earnings per share of 38 cents for the quarter. A year earlier, Tesla posted 27 cents per share. Analysts expect some support from higher deliveries, with first-quarter vehicle deliveries estimated at about 358,000, up from 337,000 a year ago.
At the same time, earnings estimates have been under pressure in recent months. Capital spending has also moved higher as Tesla continues to invest in new products and AI programs.
UBS said Tesla’s long-term valuation still depends heavily on progress in AI applications, especially its robo-taxi network and Optimus humanoid robot. Spak values Tesla at roughly $1.6 trillion on a fully diluted share basis, based on future gains in those areas.
However, UBS said progress has been slower than expected. Tesla launched its robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, yet Austin remains its only city with commercial operations. Elon Musk has said Tesla robo-taxis could reach “dozens” of cities in 2026, but UBS does not expect rapid scaling in the near term.
The same caution applies to Optimus. UBS said the robot program “will take longer than Musk’s stated targets” and flagged supply chain risk tied to Chinese-made parts. The firm models about 5,000 Optimus units in 2027 and 30,000 units by 2030.
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