InCred Equities has retained its high-conviction ADD rating on TCPL Packaging shares with a revised price target of Rs. 5,270. That suggests nearly 18% upside from the stock's November 9 closing price of Rs. 4,471. The brokerage based its view on faster growth in packaging sales, stronger quarterly earnings, and plans to enter the battery separator film market.
The report points to improving demand in the company's paperboard and flexible packaging businesses. It also identifies TCPL Packaging's new energy materials venture as a possible source of longer-term growth. The assessment combines current earnings with expansion plans that remain at an early stage.
TCPL Packaging recorded consolidated revenue of Rs. 560 crore in the September quarter of FY27. Sales rose 21.8% from a year earlier and 13.8% from the previous quarter. The result topped InCred Equities' revenue estimate by 8%.
Growth also improved from the June quarter, when revenue increased 16.1% year-on-year. For the first half of FY27, the company reported revenue growth of 19.1%. The latest quarter followed weaker results in Q2 and Q3 FY26, when geopolitical tensions affected exports.
Domestic demand from fast-moving consumer goods companies remained steady. At the same time, exports recovered against a lower comparison base. A better sales mix and price increases also helped the company earn more from its products. InCred said these factors supported realisations as the company moved past earlier export disruptions.
Management reported healthy demand across folding cartons and flexible packaging. Both businesses contributed to the improvement described in the brokerage's research report. InCred viewed the stronger sales trend as evidence of improving momentum in the core packaging operation.
Earnings grew alongside revenue. Consolidated EBITDA reached Rs. 100.1 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 17.7%. Net profit rose 58% from a year earlier to Rs. 45.3 crore. Cash profit increased 44% to Rs. 84.9 crore.
TCPL Packaging also plans to move into materials used in lithium-ion batteries. The company incorporated its wholly owned subsidiary, TCPL Energy Materials, on September 24, 2026, to pursue this business.
Its first investment phase calls for Rs. 125 crore over 18 months. The funds will support a plant with an annual capacity of 70 million square meters of separator film. According to the company, that output could serve the battery cell manufacturing capacity of about 6–8 GWh.
How far does TCPL Packaging plan to expand its battery separator film capacity? Management aims to reach around 500 million square meters a year over the next five to seven years. That scale could serve roughly 50 GWh of battery cell production in India.
The company expects commercial production to begin in Q4 FY28. Initially, the venture will coat and convert base films purchased from outside suppliers. It then plans to make its own wet-process base film through backward integration. Until that stage, the operation will rely on outside suppliers for its base-film inputs.
InCred Equities linked the venture's prospects to demand from India's electric vehicle and energy storage industries. The brokerage identified import substitution as an opportunity and said the company could gain a first-mover advantage in the domestic separator film market
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TCPL Packaging shares closed at Rs.4,471 on November 9. The stock gained 4.9% over the preceding week and 4.59% during the past month. Over six months, shares climbed 60%.
The stock's one-year gain reached 34.44%, while its three-year return stood at 111.86%. Over five years, TCPL Packaging shares delivered a return of nearly 701%.
Against that price history, InCred Equities retained its ADD recommendation and set its revised target at Rs.5,270. The gap between the target and the November 9 close amounts to Rs.799 per share, or approximately 17.9%.
InCred Equities retained its ADD rating on TCPL Packaging shares after stronger September-quarter earnings and improving packaging demand. Revenue increased 21.8%, while net profit grew 58%. The brokerage also identified the planned Rs.125 crore battery separator film investment as a potential long-term growth driver, alongside the Rs 5,270 share price target.