Solana rose 1.74% to USD 121.42 over 24 hours on Oct. 4, following softer U.S. employment data and another positive session for Solana exchange-traded funds. SOL approached resistance near USD 122.82, while technical indicators showed positive momentum and some overbought readings. Analysts also identified USD 125 as a level to watch.
U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, while unemployment reached 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Revisions also reduced July and August hiring by a combined 60,000 jobs. The weaker employment figures prompted renewed attention to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, linked the cryptocurrency market’s recovery to softer hiring and reduced expectations for further monetary tightening. He argued that weaker employment could give the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates into 2027. His assessment concerned the broader economic backdrop rather than a new Solana announcement.
Mena also outlined a Solana price forecast. “With momentum building, we see Ethereum breaking USD 3K toward USD 4K and Solana reclaiming USD 125 on its way to USD 140,” he said, with currency notation adjusted. The projection remains an analyst forecast, and SOL had not reached either target at the quoted price.
Upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision will provide further information on inflation and monetary policy. Both events remain relevant to market expectations after September’s weaker hiring figures.
U.S. spot Solana ETFs received USD 1.3 million in net inflows on Oct. 2. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF accounted for the entire addition. The other listed funds recorded no net flows, and no fund reported withdrawals during the session.
Reports differ on the weekly total. An account attributing its data to SoSoValue puts net inflows at USD 2.4 million for the week ending Oct. 2, compared with USD 188 million the previous week. A separate account records USD 0.8 million across the latest five trading sessions, leaving the precise weekly total unresolved.
The SoSoValue-based account lists inflows of USD 12.7 million on Sept. 28 and USD 5.4 million on Sept. 29. Investors then withdrew USD 11.1 million on Sept. 30 and USD 5.9 million on Oct. 1. Friday’s addition followed two consecutive sessions of net withdrawals.
Separately, network activity data attributed to DefiLlama puts Solana’s transaction fees at USD 1.09 million over 24 hours. Fees reflect payments for transactions on the blockchain. The fee total measures network use but does not establish the source of SOL’s daily price gain.
Technical analysis identifies USD 122.82 as the upper boundary of SOL’s short-term trading range and USD 118.26 as the lower boundary. Another support level sits at USD 120.17, while a recent swing low stands at USD 118.97.
The relative strength index reads 65.93, below the commonly used overbought threshold of 70. MACD signals positive momentum, while ADX, which measures trend strength, remains neutral. Stochastic RSI and CCI register overbought readings.
SOL also trades above its 20-period and 50-period hourly moving averages. The stated two-to-three-day forecast range remains USD 118.26–USD 122.82.
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