Shopify shares fell 2.3% on Friday and closed at $164.48 despite Microsoft naming Shopify in a new AI shopping rollout. The stock traded between $163.03 and $168.91, based on Shopify quote data.
The decline ran against a broad US market advance. It also came as analysts discussed ‘agentic commerce,’ which links AI discovery to checkout.
Microsoft introduced Copilot Checkout at the NRF 2026 retail conference in New York. The company said the feature now runs in the US on Copilot.com. Shoppers can complete purchases inside Copilot instead of moving to a merchant site.
Microsoft listed Shopify, PayPal, and Stripe as trusted partners for the checkout flow. The tech giant also said Copilot can surface inventory from Etsy sellers and that retailers remain the merchant of record as Copilot hosts the interface.
Microsoft promoted live demos at NRF 2026 from January 11 to January 13. The company paired Copilot Checkout with ‘Brand Agents’ that guide shoppers through questions.
Scotiabank upgraded Shopify to Sector Outperform after Microsoft’s announcement. The bank raised its price target to $200 from $165. It said AI-assisted shopping could add 300 basis points to Shopify GMV growth in 2026.
RBC Capital also kept an Outperform rating and reiterated a $200 target. Commentary linked checkout completion gains to Shopify payment volumes and take-rate-sensitive services revenue.
The pullback came as US indexes set new records. Reuters said the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday. A softer December jobs report kept rate-cut expectations in focus.
Reuters also reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December. The unemployment rate eased to 4.4% from 4.5%. Investors often treat these numbers as inputs for Fed policy expectations.
Shopify investors will watch consumer usage and merchant participation. Microsoft said Shopify merchants will enter Copilot Checkout automatically after an opt-out window. This setup could speed early scale, but it still allows withdrawals.
Microsoft said Shopify merchants will not need to apply or build an integration. The company said merchants can manage Copilot Checkout controls from the Shopify admin during the rollout.
Traders will also monitor fraud, chargebacks, and conversion rates as checkout expands. Markets also face the December CPI release on January 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The next Shopify earnings window falls in February, with calendars clustering around February 10.
In addition, updates from NRF 2026 may add detail on rollout scope and merchant controls. Those signals may indicate whether AI shopping adds sales or shifts existing traffic in 2026.
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