Oil prices fell on Monday, October 12, after news of a possible energy truce between Russia and Ukraine and promises of more Russian diesel. But trouble in the Middle East kept Brent crude above USD 100 a barrel.
Brent futures dropped USD 1.54, or 1.47%, to USD 103.18 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate fell USD 1.54, or 1.68%, to USD 90.31. ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel prices, lost 3% to USD 1,436 per tonne.
US President Donald Trump said Russia would send more diesel to the United States and other markets. On Friday, he announced a first shipment of over 300,000 metric tons, about 2.25 million barrels.
He said Russia would add 500,000 tonnes in November, followed by another one million tonnes. The International Energy Agency expects world diesel use to reach nearly 29 million barrels a day.
Trump then said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy sites. Fewer strikes on refineries could help steady fuel supplies.
Still, the deal is far from certain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was waiting for more details. Russia has not publicly confirmed it. Analysts say prices may keep swinging until the terms, and how long they last, are clear.
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Fighting in the Middle East kept oil from falling further. Yemen's Houthi group, which is backed by Iran, said it carried out a strike on Riyadh's international airport on Saturday. Reports say 13 people died and more than 300 were injured. Saudi officials also reported injuries after another attack on Sunday.
Trump said the US was thinking about joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis. That has raised fears the conflict could spread. Attacks on tankers and other disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could also threaten regional oil shipments.
Traders now face two big questions: will the Russia-Ukraine truce hold, and will the Middle East crisis grow? Good news on the first could pull prices lower. Bad news on the second could push them back up. For now, Brent sits above USD 100, and the market is waiting for clearer signs from both fronts.