Oil prices stayed above $100 as fighting in the Middle East kept traders focused on supply risks, damaged energy sites, and blocked shipping routes. Brent held near $108 to $112 a barrel, while US crude stayed below Brent but remained elevated as markets weighed how long the disruption could last.
Banks, government agencies, airlines, and energy companies now see a wide range of outcomes, with prices tied closely to the pace of repairs and the return of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil remained under pressure after damage to energy infrastructure and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz tightened global supply. About a fifth of the world’s daily oil trade normally passes through that route, and the current disruption has removed a large volume from normal trade flows.
Brent crude briefly touched $110 before easing slightly, while US crude held firm. The market reaction showed that traders still expect supply risks to stay in focus. Even with some price swings during the day, oil stayed far above levels seen before the conflict began.
Goldman Sachs said longer disruptions could keep Brent above $100 for an extended period. Its analysts wrote that “the persistence of several prior large supply shocks” shows how prices can remain elevated when outages last and supply losses continue. The bank also said Brent could move above its 2008 peak near $147 a barrel if the situation gets worse.
The bank outlined both severe and softer paths. In one case, where flows stay heavily restricted for more than two months and production recovery stays slow, Brent could still be near $111 in the final quarter of 2027. In a more stable case, with flows improving from April, prices could ease into the $70 range by the end of 2026.
The US has taken steps to bring more crude to market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short-term permit for the sale of Iranian oil already loaded on vessels, with the authorization running until April 19. He said the move could quickly add about 140 million barrels to global markets.
The decision has drawn mixed responses. Bessent said the US would “continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran,” while trying to direct oil sales toward buyers outside China. Still, critics questioned the policy.
David Tannenbaum of Blackstone Compliance Services called the idea “bananas,” while Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security said, “I don’t think it’s a game changer.” She added that the US is in an “every-barrel-counts situation” because of the size of the supply shock.
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Companies that depend on fuel are adjusting plans. In a staff memo, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said the carrier is preparing for a case where oil reaches $175 a barrel and stays above $100 through the end of 2027. He said fuel costs could rise by about $11 billion a year, prompting the airline to cut unprofitable flights over the next two quarters.
The crisis has also affected gas exports. QatarEnergy said missile strikes cut liquefied natural gas export capacity at Ras Laffan by 17%, and repairs could take up to five years. That has added more pressure to Europe and Asia, which rely on a steady LNG supply. At the same time, some investors have increased exposure to energy stocks, betting that tight supply and firm demand will continue to support the sector.