NVIDIA is drawing fresh attention after UBS said its HOLT model values the chipmaker at about $22 trillion. The figure is based on NVIDIA’s cash flow returns and growth rates, not on a standard price target. At the same time, the company is dealing with rollout pressure around Rubin chips, while major cloud firms keep working on in-house alternatives.
UBS analyst John Talbott said the HOLT model points to a much higher value for NVIDIA than its current market capitalization. The model uses cash flow return on investment, or CFROI, to measure how well a company turns capital into cash returns. Talbott said NVIDIA’s numbers stand far above the level usually seen across non-financial companies.
The model’s reading comes as NVIDIA remains the world’s largest listed company by market value, at about $4.6 trillion in mid-April.
NVIDIA also reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion for fiscal 2026, while full-year revenue reached $215.9 billion, up 65% from the prior year. Those figures help explain why UBS says the stock could be worth far more if current returns hold for longer.
NVIDIA’s latest results show that demand for its AI products remains high. The company reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.2% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, while data center revenue rose to $62.3 billion. Those numbers keep NVIDIA at the center of the AI spending cycle.
However, the next product cycle faces pressure. TrendForce said Rubin shipments could face delays tied to HBM4 memory validation, network upgrades, rising power demands, and cooling changes. The firm said Rubin products may account for only 22% of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU shipments in 2026, while Blackwell is expected to hold the leading share.
Bank of America also raised its 2026 global semiconductor market forecast to $1.3 trillion and said the market could reach $2 trillion by 2030. This keeps the long-term demand case in place. Even so, faster industry growth does not remove the need for NVIDIA to deliver new products on time and at scale.
Large cloud companies are also trying to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. In his latest shareholder letter, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy wrote that “virtually all AI thus far has been done on NVIDIA chips, but a new shift has started.” He said customers want better price-performance, while Amazon continues to build out its Trainium line.
NVIDIA also moved to shut down a separate market rumor this week. After reports claimed it was in talks to buy a major PC maker, NVIDIA told CNBC the report was “false” and said it was “not engaged in discussions to acquire any PC maker.” The rumor had already lifted Dell and HP shares before the denial.
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