NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, could affect many portfolios even when investors do not own the stock directly. According to analysts, NVIDIA now carries weight in major indexes, and its results often shape sentiment around the broader AI trade and US equities.
NVIDIA’s investor relations page lists its Q4 FY26 financial results webcast for 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET), which places the report after the US market close.
NVIDIA sits at the center of AI infrastructure spending, and investors treat its results as a read-through for chip demand, cloud spending, and large-cap tech growth. This reach extends beyond semiconductor stocks because many index funds and retirement portfolios hold NVIDIA through the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-linked products.
Market analysts cited NVIDIA’s weight in the S&P 500, which stands at roughly 8%, which gives the stock outsized influence on index moves. This setup means NVIDIA’s earnings can move portfolios indirectly.
A strong report can lift risk appetite across AI-linked names and growth sectors. A weak report can pressure the same areas, even if company-specific fundamentals elsewhere remain unchanged. Market analysts also noted that NVIDIA remains a key barometer for the AI trade, so its guidance can shift market positioning well beyond one ticker.
Analysts expect another high-growth quarter, but investors will likely focus more on forward guidance than on headline earnings per share. Market analysts expect about $66.1 billion in revenue, up 68% year over year, with profit growth above 70%, based on FactSet data.
The market’s main question is whether AI demand still supports rapid growth in the coming quarters. If NVIDIA signals strong data center demand and solid customer spending plans, investors may rotate back into AI and other growth stocks.
If management gives softer guidance, markets may reprice AI exposure more quickly, especially after recent volatility in technology shares. Market analysts highlighted broader investor concerns about AI spending returns and the durability of the trade.
Traders still expect volatility around the report, but analysts said NVIDIA options imply a 5.6% move after earnings, the smallest expected post-results swing in at least three years. The figure remains significant because analysts estimated it still represents about a $260 billion change in market value in either direction.
In context, NVIDIA’s earnings function as a referendum on the AI trade. The report can influence index funds, sector ETFs, and overall market sentiment. This dynamic explains why many investors will watch the results closely, even without a direct position in NVIDIA.
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