Michael Saylor renewed the debate around Strategy’s capital plan after the firm’s mNAV fell below 1.0x this week. He shared a brief post asking what would happen if the company started adding green dots to its charts. The post appeared with images showing Strategy’s bitcoin portfolio and equity guidance. The comment arrived as MSTR traded near $177 after a steep decline from recent highs. The move also coincided with the strategy’s risk of MSCI index exclusion in mid-January.
Strategy’s guidance states that the firm may issue credit to repurchase MSTR when mNAV falls below 1.0x. Higher mNAV bands point to issuing stock to acquire additional bitcoin. The bitcoin slide dated Nov. 30, 2025, shows holdings of 649,870 BTC valued at $59.45 billion. The mNAV dip therefore redirected attention toward potential buybacks rather than fresh BTC accumulation.
Soon after Saylor’s remark, analyst Crypto Kid noted that the firm’s mNAV slipped under 1.0x two days earlier. He stated that the threshold suggested buybacks instead of new bitcoin purchases. His reading aligned strictly with the firm's guidance, which places buybacks within the sub-1.0x region.
Phong Le, Strategy’s CEO, said BTC could be sold only if MSTR trades below its mNAV and no extra funding exists. He indicated that such action would follow the specific trigger and funding conditions. This statement added more tension to the ongoing discussion around capital allocation.
The mNAV reading intensified speculation among analysts. Starknet CEO Eli Ben-Sasson argued that the strategy could decide to sell BTC and repurchase MSTR. He said the move could lift mNAV and support the company’s market profile. Joe Burnett agreed with that reading and said issuing digital credit to buy MSTR would be more accretive than adding more BTC.
Peter Schiff criticized Saylor’s approach and said that the model raised concerns about value for shareholders. He argued that the strategy lacked income and called the setup a Ponzi scheme. Jeff Walton challenged that framing and compared Strategy’s structure to insurance models that manage long-term asset flows.
Another credit analyst said that Strategy faced pressure. He reported that selling BTC would weaken the hold thesis and create more market strain. He added that such action could deepen the broader BTC downturn.
MSTR’s decline followed a severe pullback in Bitcoin. The stock fell from $457 to $177 after BTC dropped 30% below $90,000. This sharp move raised concerns ahead of the MSCI review scheduled for mid-January. The potential exclusion added more uncertainty as investors monitored the firm’s next steps.
Hedge fund manager Michael Kao said Strategy remained unlikely to sell its BTC now. He said the firm still had manageable obligations. His assessment added another layer to the diverging signals surrounding Strategy’s capital path.
With these tensions rising, one question now shapes investor focus: Will Strategy pursue buybacks or maintain its long-standing bitcoin accumulation stance?
Also Read: Strategy Stock Slides 4% Despite Bitcoin Rally, Exposing Debt Risks in Saylor's Model
Strategy’s slip below the 1.0x mNAV line revived debate on buybacks, BTC sales, and MSTR’s sharp decline. Analysts presented opposing views, while the firm faced pressure from market losses and a pending MSCI review. Investors now watch Saylor’s next move as conditions tighten.