Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged senior executives to explore partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi while the company tests its own prediction-market app, Arena. The New York Times reported the discussions, while The Block cited the report on Friday. The partnership effort adds another option to Meta’s earlier plan to build a standalone product. The talks remain exploratory, and Meta has not announced any agreement.
Three days before the partnership report, the Times said Zuckerberg had directed a small team to develop Arena. The app would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
Insiders described Arena as experimental, yet they also called it a top company priority. Meta is therefore assessing an internal platform and possible distribution arrangements with established operators.
Will Meta pursue an independent platform, a distribution partnership, or both? The company reported 3.56 billion daily users across its Family of Apps during the first quarter of 2026.
Meta would not become the first major social platform to connect with a prediction-market operator. X selected Polymarket as its official prediction-market partner in June 2025. That arrangement placed live market probabilities and Grok-powered annotations beside posts. A similar Meta deal could introduce prediction markets across its large social-media network.
Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded rapidly during the past year. Their combined event-contract trading volume crossed $60 billion in 2026.
Institutional market makers, including Wintermute, have also provided liquidity. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May and reportedly seeks a $40 billion valuation.
Meta previously ran Forecast from 2020 until 2022. The points-based platform allowed users to make crowdsourced predictions, but Meta closed it following low usage. NPR reported that internal documents also linked the shutdown to the cost of manually selecting questions. Arena represents Meta’s second known consumer prediction product.
A points model would separate Arena from the real-money services offered by Polymarket and Kalshi. Even without cash trading, Arena could support engagement, advertising, and user-interest data. The product would still face questions involving false information, manipulation, sensitive event categories, and protections for younger users. Meta has not explained how Arena could generate revenue.
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Prediction markets let participants trade contracts tied to future events. Prices often reflect market-implied probabilities across politics, monetary policy, sports, entertainment, and financial developments. Kalshi has operated as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market since 2020. Polymarket says its United States business also uses a CFTC-regulated designated contract market.
Meta’s renewed interest follows a quarterly decline in daily users across its Family of Apps during the first quarter. Meta blamed internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia. Polymarket and Kalshi have not publicly addressed Meta’s reported interest. Meta has also issued no partnership announcement, while Arena remains an internal experiment.
Meta is testing Arena while exploring possible partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, giving the company both internal and external routes into prediction markets. No agreement or launch has been confirmed. Market participants should watch for official details on Arena’s structure, distribution, and regulatory approach.