India could build a $20 trillion economy by 2036, but the target requires a change in its growth path. Equirus estimates that nominal growth in rupee terms must rise to 14.2% annually.
The brokerage expects the rupee to appreciate by 3% to 3.6% annually against the dollar. These conditions would lift nominal dollar growth to about 18%, compared with the past pace of 10% to 11%.
India’s economy stands at about $3.7 trillion, according to the Equirus research. It must expand roughly 5.5 times over the decade to meet the 2036 target.
The size of the target makes exchange-rate performance central to the calculation. Faster growth alone may not deliver the required dollar value if the rupee weakens over time.
Equirus therefore links the forecast to higher nominal output and currency appreciation. The report presents the $20 trillion figure as a conditional estimate, rather than a fixed outcome.
India has shortened the time needed to add each block of economic output. The country took 67 years after independence to create its first $2 trillion economy. Its economy then nearly doubled during the decade following 2014.
Equirus expects services to provide the main source of expansion under its roadmap. The sector represents about 54% of India’s gross domestic product.
Its share would need to exceed 65% as the economy approaches the $20 trillion level. In value terms, services output must rise from around $2 trillion to more than $11 trillion.
The report gives global capability centres a role in that shift. A national policy could raise the number of centres from more than 1,800 to 5,000.
Equirus estimates that this expansion could generate $470 billion to $600 billion in economic activity. It could also create between 20 million and 25 million jobs.
Tourism offers a source of service exports and foreign currency earnings. Stronger promotion could add about $21 billion to annual foreign exchange receipts, according to the report. Meanwhile, agriculture’s GDP share could fall as urbanisation increases. Manufacturing may face pressure from a more protectionist global trade environment.
ALSO READ: ITR Filing 2026 India: What to Do After Receiving an Income Tax Notice
The brokerage proposes 20 reforms across taxation, capital markets, education, research, services and urban management. It calls for fuel to enter the Goods and Services Tax system.
Other proposals include minimum capital-spending floors for states and a public listing of Indian Railways. The plan also proposes an Indian sovereign fund and more private education capacity.
Equirus also wants India to revive private research and development and deepen corporate bond markets. These measures seek to improve capital access and direct funding toward productive activity.
Tax changes form another part of the plan. The report estimates that ending advance tax could release about Rs 10 trillion in working capital. A flat 5% tax deducted at source could unlock another Rs 13.4 trillion.
The package could produce Rs 7.9 trillion in annual direct benefits, Equirus estimates. It places the yearly cost near Rs 3.4 trillion, leaving a projected net gain of Rs 4.5 trillion.
The report ties the 2036 goal to coordinated delivery across all reform areas. Faster output, a firmer rupee and larger service exports must develop together under its projection.