India's Balance of Payments outlook has improved sharply after SBI Research changed its FY27 forecast from a large deficit to a $51 billion surplus. The new estimate comes after strong foreign money entered the country through the RBI's FCNR(B), Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowing, and External Commercial Borrowing schemes.
SBI now expects the current account deficit to stay between 1% and 1.2% of GDP, while capital inflows may rise to about $103 billion. The report said, "Thus the overall balance of payment would be in surplus of more than $50 billion for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of $65-70 billion deficit."
The biggest reason behind the improved outlook is the strong response to the FCNR(B) scheme. Banks have already received $17.4 billion in deposits. SBI now expects total FCNR(B) inflows to reach $65 billion to $70 billion before the scheme closes on September 30. Total inflows from FCNR(B), OFCB, and ECB could reach $80 billion to $85 billion.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank's recent measures have already brought in nearly $32 billion from overseas. Most of this money came through FCNR(B) deposits, helping improve India's external financial position.
Speaking about the rupee, Malhotra said, "We do not target any specific exchange rate or band for the rupee. Our intervention, whenever necessary, is targeted to curb excessive volatility."
SBI also said the rupee may stay under pressure after the FCNR(B) window closes. Even so, strong foreign inflows, healthy forex reserves, and steady investment could keep India's external position stable during FY27.
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