Gold prices in India have dropped 17% from record highs following US payroll data. This price correction has prompted investors to evaluate buying opportunities. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold has corrected by nearly 7% since the onset of the Iran conflict on 28th February. It highlights a shift in investor preference towards the US dollar as the primary safe-haven asset.
The COMEX gold price closed at $4,679.70/oz, while the MCX gold rate ended at Rs. 1,49,650 per 10 gm. The gold price in India is around Rs. 31,000, or 17% below the record high of Rs. 1,80,779 per 10 gm. The precious yellow metal recorded a 2.20% weekly gain.
According to market experts, after Donald Trump's speech, hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war shattered, and crude oil prices began to skyrocket. It strengthened the US dollar and renewed inflation fears. Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that gold prices edged higher by nearly 2.2%% during the week, but the upside remained capped as crude oil surged over 10%.
“The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s IRGC Navy has kept oil prices elevated, raising concerns over imported inflation and reinforcing expectations of a tighter monetary stance in the U.S,” she added.
From a macro perspective, stronger-than-expected US labor market data for March, non-farm payroll additions of 178K against the expected 65K, a lower unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to 4.4% forecast, and stable wage growth, indicate resilience in the economy.
“This strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish bias, supporting the dollar and limiting upside in bullion. Additionally, persistent ETF outflows throughout March, with redemptions significantly exceeding inflows, reflect weakening investment demand for gold,” said Sugandha.
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Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes the lack of strong follow-through buying suggests global markets remain in a wait-and-watch mode.
“Post-Trump’s address to the nation, markets are showing a measured reaction rather than panic, indicating that risk sentiment remains controlled for now. This has capped aggressive safe-haven flows into gold, keeping rallies restricted,” the Enrich Money expert said.
“A decisive breakout above $4,800 could extend the move toward $4,850, with further upside potential toward $4,900, where strong supply is expected. On the downside, a sustained break below $4,600 may accelerate selling pressure toward $4,550–$4,500, with extended weakness possibly dragging prices toward $4,400,” the Enrich Money CEO said.
The real impact will depend on how geopolitical developments evolve henceforth, as markets are currently pricing in uncertainty without fully committing to a directional trend.
Sugandha maintained that the gold rate today is caught between geopolitical uncertainty and macro headwinds, with price action increasingly dictated by crude oil trends and dollar strength. As long as oil prices remain elevated and rate-cut expectations are delayed, bullion is likely to witness sharp, headline-driven volatility rather than a sustained directional rally.