Gold prices in India are expected to rise, with analysts predicting a potential move toward Rs. 1.27 lakh amid inflation concerns and a strong US dollar. Analysts attribute this sharp correction to investors recalibrating expectations after the Fed's announcement, persistent inflation risks, and surging energy prices amid escalating tensions in Iran.
After hovering around the Rs. 1,60,000 levels at the beginning of the US-Iran war, the MCX gold rate received a heavy beating last week and finished at Rs. 1,44,825 per 10 gm, whereas the COMEX gold rate ended at $4,574.90 per troy ounce.
The price of gold in India today (March 21, 2026) is Rs. 14890 per gram for 24 karat gold, Rs. 13,654 per gram for 22 karat gold, and Rs 11,172 per gram for 18 karat gold. The price of gold has been volatile over the last few days. The value of 18, 22, and 24 carat gold has shown a minimal change from yesterday's price for 1 gram of gold.
According to market experts, the gold rate today is navigating a complex macro environment in which geopolitical escalation and expectations of monetary tightening are pulling in opposite directions. They said that the downtrend in the precious yellow metal may continue, and the gold rate in India may touch Rs. 1,27,000 per 10 gm and $4,250 per ounce in the international market.
Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that “Intensifying conflict in West Asia, particularly Israel’s strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran’s retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure across key Gulf nations, has significantly elevated global energy risk premiums.”
“This has triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices, raising concerns of imported inflation globally, especially through higher fuel and logistics costs,” she added.
Gold rate has fallen sharply across all Karats following the United States (US) Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The market reaction was compounded by festival-season selling during Chaitra Navratri, Ugadi, Gudi Padwa, and Eid, with investors offloading precious metals amid heightened global uncertainty.
Following the resilient US dollar and renewed fear of inflation, driven by the soaring crude oil prices, gold prices across the world witnessed sharp selling last week.
Also Read: How Inflation and Interest Rates Impact Gold Prices
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “Gold rates today are sideways to negative despite the ongoing US-Iran war.”
“This is because the market is estimating an inflation challenge for the global central banks. He said that rising crude oil prices are expected to fuel global inflation, and in that case, central banks will have no choice but to either raise interest rates or keep them steady,” said Gupta.
This was evident last week, when the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England signalled a cautious-to-hawkish approach to interest rates.
The global central banks have adopted a more cautious and, in some cases, hawkish stance. The US Federal Reserve has acknowledged that the inflationary impact of the conflict remains highly uncertain. It has prompted a recalibration of rate expectations for 2026.