Ethereum may struggle to reach fresh record highs in the coming year as Bitcoin’s market structure continues to signal sustained weakness. This assessment comes from crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who outlined his views during a recent appearance on the Bankless.
Cowen said the prevailing situation is more like a longer Bitcoin bear market than a temporary correction. Consequently, Ethereum will encounter stronger resistance if it attempts to return to its previous peak. He further added how Ethereum does not detach from Bitcoin during long bearish phases; when Bitcoin's rally is lost, Ethereum is often unable to create independent bulls.
Given this reliance, Cowen proposed the anticipation of a huge Ethereum breakout next year might still be overstated. After all, broader market conditions remain unfavorable for aggressive upside scenarios.
Bitcoin’s outlook continues to shape Ethereum forecasts across the market. Veteran trader Peter Brandt added to the bearish sentiment earlier this month.
On December 19, Brandt claimed Bitcoin could decline toward $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, reinforcing concerns about extended downside pressure. Such a move would likely weigh on Ethereum’s price structure.
Historically, Ethereum has tracked Bitcoin’s major cycles with minimal delay. Cowen echoed this pattern during his discussion, highlighting that Ethereum usually fails to generate lasting upsides when Bitcoin remains under pressure.
As a result, traders continue to view Bitcoin as the primary driver of Ethereum’s medium-term trajectory.
Cowen warned that a return to Ethereum’s prior record may not signal strength. Instead, such a move could form a classic bull trap.
Ethereum last reached its all-time high of $4,878 in August. Prices briefly reclaimed that level before sellers regained control. Following that attempt, Ethereum entered a sustained downtrend. By November, Ether had fallen to $2,767 as momentum faded.
At the time of publication, Ether trades at around $2,898, according to CoinMarketCap. A move back to the record high would require a gain of about 40.59%.
Cowen emphasized the downside risk would remain high even if Ethereum reached that level again. He also specified a possible reversal that might take the price back to the $2,000 zone.
Addressing the broader altcoin market during the interview, Cowen elaborated on Ethereum standing apart from most other alternative cryptocurrencies. According to his statements, many altcoins may already have peaked during the current cycle. As a result, new highs for most tokens remain unlikely.
He described Ethereum as the only altcoin with a realistic chance of returning to its former highs. Even so, he stressed that such a move would not guarantee broader market strength.
Historically, late-cycle conditions often concentrate capital into fewer assets. Ethereum has typically benefited more than smaller projects during those periods. That dynamic could persist if macro conditions remain uncertain and liquidity stays selective.
Other organizations have also pointed out the long-term dangers Ethereum is facing. According to reports, Fundstrat Global Advisors issued a warning to investors on December 17 about a possible dip in 2026.
Such a situation might bring Ether's price down to a band of $1,800 to $2,000. The company's analysts cited cyclical pressures and market positioning as the main reasons. However, several market experts still hold an optimistic view in the short term.
On December 16, ‘Crypto With James’ forecasted that Ethereum would be trying to make another run at the old highs. Despite those differing views, Cowen emphasized caution, signalling that any rally would likely remain isolated rather than spark a broad altcoin resurgence.
For now, Ethereum’s trajectory remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. Market participants continue to monitor both assets as longer-term risks come into focus.
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Ethereum faces limited upside as Bitcoin weakness continues to shape market direction. Analysts warn any return to prior highs may lack durability, thus reversing sharply. As 2026 risks grow, investors may need to track Bitcoin closely and approach Ethereum rallies with caution rather than expectation.