Tom Lee, executive chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies and head of research at Fundstrat, argues that Ethereum now sits at the start of a Bitcoin-like “supercycle.” He compares the current ETH market structure to Bitcoin’s setup in 2017, when his firm first urged clients to buy BTC near $1,000.
Ethereum price is near $3,200, about a 30% decline from its all-time high of approximately $4,953 in August 2025, and Bitcoin pulled back below $97,000 after hitting a high of over $126,000. Lee presents the two corrections of both assets as a continuation of a longer growth path, not as a structural weakness.
Lee notes that BTC gained roughly 100x from his 2017 call despite several deep setbacks. He highlights six drawdowns greater than 50% and three drops exceeding 75% in the last eight and a half years. In his view, investors who held through those periods received the full benefit of the earlier Bitcoin supercycle.
He now applies the same framework to Ethereum. Tom Lee says ETH “embarks on that same supercycle” and interprets current weakness as doubt from market participants, not fundamental deterioration. He argues that markets often price in a “massive future” through sharp volatility and that long-term holders must tolerate what he calls “existential moments.”
The analyst also links the recent downturn to stress at one or more large market makers. He suggests that aggressive players may attempt to trigger liquidations and drive prices lower in the short term. Lee expects that pressure to fade and says it does not change his long-term thesis for Ethereum or Bitcoin.
Lee maintains price targets of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $7,000 for Ethereum by the end of 2025. He bases those projections on what he describes as strong liquidity conditions and a steady rise in institutional adoption of crypto assets and blockchain infrastructure. He also advises traders to avoid leverage so forced liquidations do not erase long-term positions.
On-chain analytics support Lee’s focus on long-term behavior around Ethereum. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci reports that ETH trades about 8% above the “accumulation realized price,” roughly $2,895. This level represents the average cost basis for wallets holding ETH for an extended period.
ETH slipped below that mark only once this year, during the April 2025 “Trump tariff” shock that drove a spike in global economic uncertainty. Despite that episode, Kesmeci estimates that long-term accumulation added about 17 million ETH in 2025. Their total holdings increased from 10 million to 27 million ETH, suggesting that many larger investors chose to buy during volatility rather than sell into panic.
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Whale behavior also reinforces that pattern. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH accumulated about 7.6 million ETH since April, a rise of more than 50%. Smaller holders reduced exposure in the same period, which points to a shift from retail traders to institutional or professional investors. Analysts often see this divergence during the late stages of a compression phase before a major move.
In addition, network data shows that activity on Ethereum has slowed since October’s market-wide crash. Gas fees recently dropped to some of the lowest levels in years, helped by the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which cut costs for layer-2 rollups. ETH fee revenue fell by 99% from peak bull-market levels, underscoring how much cheaper it has become to transact on the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
Market data and commentary now place Ethereum at a pivotal point. If long-term accumulation near $2,900 leads to renewed demand and higher on-chain activity, Lee’s supercycle call may gain credibility. If alternative platforms capture that activity instead, his projection of a Bitcoin-style 100x journey for ETH will face an even tougher test.